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v0.1
0127.HK$1.17-0.85%
Fair $1.17+0.0%

0127.HK

Chinese Estates Holdings Limited

Real Estate / Real Estate - DiversifiedHKSE

$1.17

-0.01 (-0.85%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.17Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 16/F
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 0.0/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

16/100

F

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -3.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 0127.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Chinese Estates Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.2B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-3.3%

↓

Gross Margin

85.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.21

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

0127.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.170Periodo -75.2%
Fair value: $1.170

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-40.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-93.1%

FCF / Net income

0.72x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $301.1M · net income $-388.5M · FCF $-280.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

85.7%-10.2% pts

Operating margin

-4.7%-75.6% pts

Net margin

-129.0%-209.3% pts

FCF margin

-93.1%-77.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$301.1M$301.1M$336.8M$479.6M$1.43B
Net Income$-388.5M$-388.5M$-2.11B$76.8M$1.15B
EBITDA$-204.4M$-204.4M$-1.81B$430.7M$1.43B
EPS-0.20-0.20-1.100.040.60
Gross Margin85.7%85.7%83.2%89.7%95.9%
Operating Margin-4.7%-4.7%-20.2%21.6%70.9%
Net Margin-129.0%-129.0%-626.0%16.0%80.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.210.210.250.280.36
Current Ratio1.041.04———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-280.2M$-280.2M$322.1M$227.8M$-219.4M
Returns
ROE-3.3%-3.3%-17.5%0.5%8.2%
Valuation
P/E———29.004.16
EV/EBITDA———12.895.42
P/B0.190.190.190.160.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-10.6%-10.6%-29.8%-66.6%—
EPS Growth81.5%81.5%-2862.5%-93.4%—
Dividend Yield3.4%3.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -12.4%

Total return

-12.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-1.10 → -0.20

Residual

-15.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+3.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-15.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.