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v0.1
0389.HK$0.19-3.00%
Fair $0.19+0.0%

0389.HK

China Tontine Wines Group Limited

Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesHKSE

$0.19

-0.01 (-3.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.19Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 28/D
F-Score: 6/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $18.3M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

28/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is -0.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 0389.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Tontine Wines Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$59M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

6.1x

↓

ROE

-0.9%

↓

Gross Margin

17.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$0
$0$1

TradingView lightweight chart

0389.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.194Periodo -99.3%
Fair value: $0.194

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+2.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

20.8%

FCF / Net income

-39.36x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $159.4M · net income $-843000.0 · FCF $33.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

17.6%-6.9% pts

Operating margin

0.3%+23.5% pts

Net margin

-0.5%+17.5% pts

FCF margin

20.8%+41.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$159.4M$159.4M$108.0M$189.1M$146.1M
Net Income$-843000.00$-843000.00$-321.3M$-80.2M$-26.4M
EBITDA$5.2M$5.2M$-345.2M$-50.0M$-8.6M
EPS-0.00-0.00-1.07-0.27-0.09
Gross Margin17.6%17.6%6.8%14.9%24.6%
Operating Margin0.3%0.3%-174.8%-30.8%-23.2%
Net Margin-0.5%-0.5%-297.5%-42.4%-18.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.03—0.010.00
Current Ratio2.792.79———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$33.2M$33.2M$-94.8M$18.3M$-30.4M
Returns
ROE-0.9%-0.9%-347.1%-19.9%-5.5%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA6.076.07———
P/B0.640.641.400.600.62
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth47.6%47.6%-42.9%29.4%—
EPS Growth99.7%99.7%-300.7%-195.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -54.9%

Total return

-54.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-1.07 → -0.00

Residual

-54.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-54.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.