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0398.HK$3.26+0.31%
Fair $3.26+0.0%

0398.HK

Oriental Watch Holdings Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Luxury GoodsHKSE

$3.26

+0.01 (+0.31%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.26Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 5/9
Declining RevenueMargin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $292.7M · quality 77.0/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 69/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 0398.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Oriental Watch Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.6B

P/E

8.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.9x

↓

ROE

11.4%

↑

Gross Margin

31.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.11

↓
52-Week Range$3
$3$4

TradingView lightweight chart

0398.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.260Periodo +531.0%
Fair value: $3.260

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.8%

FCF CAGR

-26.4%

FCF margin

7.6%

FCF / Net income

1.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.45B · net income $200.5M · FCF $263.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

31.5%-1.0% pts

Operating margin

9.0%-3.9% pts

Net margin

5.8%-4.1% pts

FCF margin

7.6%-10.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.45B$3.45B$3.64B$3.70B$3.64B
Net Income$200.5M$200.5M$250.5M$295.4M$362.6M
EBITDA$507.9M$507.9M$582.6M$634.9M$690.9M
EPS0.410.410.510.610.74
Gross Margin31.5%31.5%31.6%32.1%32.4%
Operating Margin9.0%9.0%10.0%11.3%12.9%
Net Margin5.8%5.8%6.9%8.0%10.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.110.110.150.190.23
Current Ratio3.863.86———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$263.4M$263.4M$292.7M$375.0M$659.8M
Returns
ROE11.4%11.4%14.0%15.6%17.8%
Valuation
P/E8.818.817.047.236.01
EV/EBITDA1.871.871.942.221.98
P/B0.910.910.981.131.07
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.2%-5.2%-1.8%1.8%—
EPS Growth-20.0%-20.0%-15.2%-18.5%—
Dividend Yield3.3%3.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-11.1%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.29

Spread vs growth

-8.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-3.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.35

Spread vs growth

-16.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

3.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.56

Spread vs growth

-23.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -5.7%

Total return

-5.7%

Start / end P/E

7.0x → 7.9x

EPS bridge

0.51 → 0.41

Residual

-2.7%

EPS growth-20.0%
Multiple rerating+13.8%
Dividend+3.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.