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v0.1
0411.HK$11.98-0.99%
Fair $11.98+0.0%

0411.HK

Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Limited

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsHKSE

$11.98

-0.12 (-0.99%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.98Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 58/C
F-Score: 7/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $161.8M · quality 74.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

58/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 0411.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

9.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.5x

↓

ROE

6.9%

↑

Gross Margin

20.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$12
$10$17

TradingView lightweight chart

0411.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.10Periodo +764.3%
Fair value: $11.98

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2021–2024 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.7%

FCF CAGR

+29.9%

FCF margin

4.1%

FCF / Net income

0.99x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $4.84B · net income $200.6M · FCF $198.3M

2021-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

20.9%-1.4% pts

Operating margin

3.9%-2.9% pts

Net margin

4.1%-2.1% pts

FCF margin

4.1%+2.5% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
2021
Income Statement
Revenue$4.84B$4.84B$5.12B$6.11B$5.76B
Net Income$200.6M$200.6M$85.3M$257.3M$357.7M
EBITDA$317.2M$317.2M$167.4M$351.7M$483.9M
EPS0.850.850.361.091.51
Gross Margin20.9%20.9%17.1%18.7%22.3%
Operating Margin3.9%3.9%1.0%4.1%6.8%
Net Margin4.1%4.1%1.7%4.2%6.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio4.704.70———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$198.3M$198.3M$109.3M$161.8M$90.5M
Returns
ROE6.9%6.9%3.1%8.7%12.4%
Valuation
P/E9.749.7430.509.839.93
EV/EBITDA3.503.506.732.814.28
P/B0.970.970.930.851.23
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.5%-5.5%-16.2%6.0%—
EPS Growth136.1%136.1%-67.0%-27.8%—
Dividend Yield4.0%4.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

7.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.06

Spread vs growth

128.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.29

Spread vs growth

127.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.07

Spread vs growth

126.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +17.0%

Total return

+17.0%

Start / end P/E

29.4x → 14.1x

EPS bridge

0.36 → 0.85

Residual

-71.0%

EPS growth+136.1%
Multiple rerating-52.1%
Dividend+4.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-71.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.