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0603.HK$0.15+0.66%
Fair $0.15+0.0%

0603.HK

China Oil And Gas Group Limited

Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingHKSE

$0.15

+0.00 (+0.66%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.15Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 27/D
F-Score: 5/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $764.2M · quality 56.7/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 74/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

27/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.33, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 2.0%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 0603.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Oil And Gas Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$857M

P/E

7.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

3.8x

↓

ROE

2.0%

↓

Gross Margin

13.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.33

↑
52-Week Range$0
$0$1

TradingView lightweight chart

0603.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.152Periodo -86.3%
Fair value: $0.152

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.3%

FCF CAGR

-17.5%

FCF margin

5.0%

FCF / Net income

9.47x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $15.16B · net income $80.7M · FCF $764.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.6%+1.3% pts

Operating margin

9.3%+0.3% pts

Net margin

0.5%-3.7% pts

FCF margin

5.0%-2.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$15.16B$15.16B$17.66B$18.53B$17.30B
Net Income$80.7M$80.7M$180.8M$-232.5M$730.1M
EBITDA$2.13B$2.13B$2.23B$1.88B$2.80B
EPS0.020.020.04-0.050.15
Gross Margin13.6%13.6%12.4%10.6%12.3%
Operating Margin9.3%9.3%8.9%6.6%9.0%
Net Margin0.5%0.5%1.0%-1.3%4.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.332.332.342.042.04
Current Ratio0.860.86———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$764.2M$764.2M$1.17B$682.9M$1.36B
Returns
ROE2.0%2.0%4.9%-6.1%17.3%
Valuation
P/E7.607.604.94—1.95
EV/EBITDA3.783.783.103.672.40
P/B0.200.200.250.310.34
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.1%-14.1%-4.7%7.1%—
EPS Growth-54.3%-54.3%174.5%-131.5%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.01

Spread vs growth

-48.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.02

Spread vs growth

-54.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.03

Spread vs growth

-59.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +4.1%

Total return

+4.1%

Start / end P/E

4.2x → 9.5x

EPS bridge

0.04 → 0.02

Residual

-69.3%

EPS growth-54.3%
Multiple rerating+127.7%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-69.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.