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0866.HK$1.92-2.04%
Fair $1.92+0.0%

0866.HK

China Qinfa Group Limited

Energy / Thermal CoalHKSE

$1.92

-0.04 (-2.04%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.92Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 27/D
F-Score: 3/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-384.5M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 22/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

27/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific commodity mid-cycle model required: targets are disabled until normalized cycle price/cost-curve/reserve data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -4.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 0866.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Qinfa Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.0B

P/E

64.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

8.8x

↑

ROE

-4.5%

↓

Gross Margin

25.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.90

↑
52-Week Range$2
$1$4

TradingView lightweight chart

0866.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.920Periodo +43.3%
Fair value: $1.920

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-21.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-56.2%

FCF / Net income

11.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.84B · net income $-93.9M · FCF $-1.03B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.7%-7.8% pts

Operating margin

12.7%-12.5% pts

Net margin

-5.1%-17.1% pts

FCF margin

-56.2%-62.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.84B$1.84B$1.13B$3.45B$3.79B
Net Income$-93.9M$-93.9M$501.9M$200.3M$456.5M
EBITDA$707.2M$707.2M$1.09B$1.46B$2.00B
EPS-0.04-0.040.190.080.17
Gross Margin25.7%25.7%29.9%25.5%33.6%
Operating Margin12.7%12.7%14.6%16.5%25.2%
Net Margin-5.1%-5.1%44.4%5.8%12.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.900.900.61-7.56269.45
Current Ratio1.151.15———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.03B$-1.03B$-384.5M$378.8M$253.3M
Returns
ROE-4.5%-4.5%25.5%-42.4%3483.7%
Valuation
P/E64.0064.007.233.191.26
EV/EBITDA8.848.843.482.681.63
P/B2.352.351.84—43.84
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth62.7%62.7%-67.2%-9.1%—
EPS Growth-120.5%-120.5%148.1%-56.0%—
Dividend Yield1.0%1.0%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +54.6%

Total return

+54.6%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.19 → -0.04

Residual

+53.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+53.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.