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1049.HK$1.15+0.00%
Fair $1.15+0.0%

1049.HK

Celestial Asia Securities Holdings Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Department StoresHKSE

$1.15

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.15Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 20/D
F-Score: 4/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $62.3M · quality 31.0/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 36/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

20/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 22.43, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -3.7%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1049.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Celestial Asia Securities Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$93M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

-3.6x

↓

ROE

-371.2%

↓

Gross Margin

46.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

22.43

↑
52-Week Range$1
$0$2

TradingView lightweight chart

1049.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.150Periodo -99.3%
Fair value: $1.150

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-14.1%

FCF CAGR

-30.2%

FCF margin

8.9%

FCF / Net income

-1.30x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $767.4M · net income $-52.8M · FCF $68.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

46.5%+3.6% pts

Operating margin

-9.9%-2.5% pts

Net margin

-6.9%-4.1% pts

FCF margin

8.9%-7.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$767.4M$767.4M$883.7M$1.02B$1.21B
Net Income$-52.8M$-52.8M$-58.3M$-108.0M$-33.6M
EBITDA$33.4M$33.4M$55.2M$26.4M$148.4M
EPS-0.65-0.65-0.72-1.34-0.42
Gross Margin46.5%46.5%47.0%45.5%42.9%
Operating Margin-9.9%-9.9%-8.1%-13.0%-7.4%
Net Margin-6.9%-6.9%-6.6%-10.6%-2.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity22.4322.436.253.172.98
Current Ratio1.021.02———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$68.6M$68.6M$62.3M$35.0M$202.0M
Returns
ROE-371.2%-371.2%-109.9%-93.1%-17.2%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA-3.62-3.62-1.25-4.99-0.52
P/B6.536.530.820.690.78
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-13.2%-13.2%-13.1%-16.1%—
EPS Growth9.4%9.4%46.1%-221.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.2%

Total return

+16.2%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.72 → -0.65

Residual

+16.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+16.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.