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1117.HK$1.16+1.75%
Fair $1.16+0.0%

1117.HK

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsHKSE

$1.16

+0.02 (+1.75%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.16Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 13/F
F-Score: 5/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 12%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.3B · quality 31.3/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 23/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

13/100

F

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 4unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.60, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 1117.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.1B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

39.2x

↑

ROE

-13.6%

↓

Gross Margin

27.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.60

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

1117.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.160Periodo -53.6%
Fair value: $1.160

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+0.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-10.2%

FCF / Net income

1.14x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $12.60B · net income $-1.13B · FCF $-1.28B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.4%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

-5.7%-16.2% pts

Net margin

-9.0%-13.5% pts

FCF margin

-10.2%+10.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$12.60B$12.60B$13.25B$13.46B$12.30B
Net Income$-1.13B$-1.13B$-1.42B$175.2M$562.5M
EBITDA$615.7M$615.7M$118.8M$1.19B$1.40B
EPS-0.14-0.14-0.180.020.07
Gross Margin27.4%27.4%26.0%23.2%26.6%
Operating Margin-5.7%-5.7%-3.6%5.5%10.5%
Net Margin-9.0%-9.0%-10.7%1.3%4.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.602.601.771.211.20
Current Ratio0.960.96———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-1.28B$-1.28B$-2.02B$1.12B$-2.52B
Returns
ROE-13.6%-13.6%-14.9%1.6%5.0%
Valuation
P/E———32.5814.03
EV/EBITDA39.1539.15174.5214.5213.79
P/B1.101.100.720.510.70
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.9%-4.9%-1.5%9.5%—
EPS Growth20.3%20.3%-918.6%-69.0%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +13.8%

Total return

+13.8%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.18 → -0.14

Residual

+12.6%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+12.6%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.