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1203.HK$0.67+0.00%
Fair $0.67+0.0%

1203.HK

GDH Guangnan (Holdings) Limited

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsHKSE

$0.67

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.67Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 41/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-1.1M · quality 41.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

41/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 4.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1203.HKLocal privado en este navegador · GDH Guangnan (Holdings) Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$608M

P/E

5.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.8x

↓

ROE

4.1%

↓

Gross Margin

4.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.33

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

1203.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.670Periodo +514.7%
Fair value: $0.670

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+13.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

1.5%

FCF / Net income

1.65x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $12.14B · net income $111.6M · FCF $183.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

4.5%-2.2% pts

Operating margin

1.5%-1.5% pts

Net margin

0.9%-0.7% pts

FCF margin

1.5%+2.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$12.14B$12.14B$11.98B$10.39B$8.31B
Net Income$111.6M$111.6M$140.8M$65.9M$135.7M
EBITDA$303.2M$303.2M$373.7M$282.7M$305.9M
EPS0.120.120.160.070.15
Gross Margin4.5%4.5%4.2%5.5%6.7%
Operating Margin1.5%1.5%1.6%2.5%3.0%
Net Margin0.9%0.9%1.2%0.6%1.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.330.330.390.370.40
Current Ratio1.811.81———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$183.7M$183.7M$-9.2M$-1.1M$-98.1M
Returns
ROE4.1%4.1%5.4%2.6%5.3%
Valuation
P/E5.585.583.937.854.36
EV/EBITDA1.821.821.621.491.30
P/B0.220.220.210.200.23
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth1.3%1.3%15.3%25.0%—
EPS Growth-20.7%-20.7%113.6%-51.3%—
Dividend Yield5.5%5.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-21.5%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.06

Spread vs growth

0.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-10.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.07

Spread vs growth

-10.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.12

Spread vs growth

-20.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -6.3%

Total return

-6.3%

Start / end P/E

4.9x → 5.4x

EPS bridge

0.16 → 0.12

Residual

-2.3%

EPS growth-20.7%
Multiple rerating+11.2%
Dividend+5.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.