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v0.1
1397.HK$1.10-0.90%
Fair $1.10+0.0%

1397.HK

Baguio Green Group Limited

Industrials / Waste ManagementHKSE

$1.10

-0.01 (-0.90%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.10Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 23%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $151.6M · quality 55.3/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 33/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 1397.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Baguio Green Group Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$457M

P/E

4.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.6x

↓

ROE

19.8%

↑

Gross Margin

9.5%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.17

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$1

TradingView lightweight chart

1397.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.100Periodo -11.3%
Fair value: $1.100

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+10.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

6.3%

FCF / Net income

1.56x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.42B · net income $97.3M · FCF $151.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

9.5%+1.1% pts

Operating margin

4.0%+0.3% pts

Net margin

4.0%+1.0% pts

FCF margin

6.3%+8.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.42B$2.42B$2.60B$2.33B$1.79B
Net Income$97.3M$97.3M$53.9M$47.1M$53.7M
EBITDA$192.1M$192.1M$163.6M$161.6M$138.3M
EPS——0.130.110.13
Gross Margin9.5%9.5%7.2%8.9%8.4%
Operating Margin4.0%4.0%2.6%3.3%3.6%
Net Margin4.0%4.0%2.1%2.0%3.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.170.170.290.590.64
Current Ratio1.621.62———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$151.6M$151.6M$227.5M$44.5M$-44.8M
Returns
ROE19.8%19.8%13.1%12.7%15.9%
Valuation
P/E4.784.784.856.263.86
EV/EBITDA1.551.551.562.922.87
P/B0.930.930.640.800.61
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.9%-6.9%11.8%29.8%—
EPS Growth——14.4%-12.3%—
Dividend Yield6.3%6.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +73.0%

Total return

+73.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.13 → n/d

Residual

+66.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+6.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+66.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.