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1432.HK$0.33+0.00%
Fair $0.33+0.0%

1432.HK

China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsHKSE

$0.33

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.33Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 22/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-375.5M · quality 53.3/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 25/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

22/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -10.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1432.HKLocal privado en este navegador · China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-10.4%

↓

Gross Margin

25.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.63

↑
52-Week Range$0
$0$1

TradingView lightweight chart

1432.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.330Periodo -86.1%
Fair value: $0.330

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-1.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-9.0%

FCF / Net income

0.73x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.01B · net income $-373.4M · FCF $-272.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.1%-6.8% pts

Operating margin

22.7%-3.4% pts

Net margin

-12.4%-25.5% pts

FCF margin

-9.0%-12.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.01B$3.01B$3.13B$3.38B$3.18B
Net Income$-373.4M$-373.4M$-65.5M$86.1M$416.5M
EBITDA$-188.8M$-188.8M$125.3M$277.9M$627.2M
EPS-0.04-0.04-0.010.010.05
Gross Margin25.1%25.1%29.6%30.3%31.9%
Operating Margin22.7%22.7%24.9%24.9%26.1%
Net Margin-12.4%-12.4%-2.1%2.5%13.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.630.630.590.540.46
Current Ratio0.880.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-272.0M$-272.0M$-482.2M$-375.5M$97.5M
Returns
ROE-10.4%-10.4%-1.7%2.1%10.3%
Valuation
P/E———25.247.16
EV/EBITDA——24.2514.227.04
P/B0.760.760.350.540.73
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.6%-3.6%-7.6%6.5%—
EPS Growth-462.5%-462.5%-177.7%-79.2%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +82.3%

Total return

+82.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.01 → -0.04

Residual

+82.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+82.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.