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v0.1
1599.HK$1.22+0.83%
Fair $1.22+0.0%

1599.HK

Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co., Limited

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionHKSE

$1.22

+0.01 (+0.83%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.22Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 32/D
F-Score: 6/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $259.9M · quality 47.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

32/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 1599.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co., Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.6B

P/E

2.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.0x

↓

ROE

6.5%

↑

Gross Margin

19.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.81

↑
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

1599.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.220Periodo -59.5%
Fair value: $1.220

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-10.3%

FCF CAGR

-35.0%

FCF margin

3.5%

FCF / Net income

0.50x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $7.53B · net income $515.2M · FCF $259.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

19.8%+2.3% pts

Operating margin

8.5%-1.7% pts

Net margin

6.8%-2.3% pts

FCF margin

3.5%-5.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$7.53B$7.53B$8.67B$10.36B$10.43B
Net Income$515.2M$515.2M$511.7M$872.9M$959.2M
EBITDA$1.09B$1.09B$1.18B$1.55B$1.57B
EPS0.380.380.380.650.71
Gross Margin19.8%19.8%18.1%18.2%17.6%
Operating Margin8.5%8.5%7.3%8.0%10.2%
Net Margin6.8%6.8%5.9%8.4%9.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.810.810.870.931.02
Current Ratio1.331.33———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$259.9M$259.9M$564.0M$-163.7M$945.2M
Returns
ROE6.5%6.5%6.6%11.8%14.1%
Valuation
P/E2.772.774.163.322.82
EV/EBITDA5.035.034.804.203.41
P/B0.210.210.280.390.40
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-13.2%-13.2%-16.3%-0.7%—
EPS Growth0.0%0.0%-41.5%-8.5%—
Dividend Yield6.8%6.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-34.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.11

Spread vs growth

34.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

-19.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.13

Spread vs growth

19.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.21

Spread vs growth

5.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -3.5%

Total return

-3.5%

Start / end P/E

3.6x → 3.2x

EPS bridge

0.38 → 0.38

Residual

-0.0%

EPS growth+0.0%
Multiple rerating-10.3%
Dividend+6.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.