StockAnalyzer

Financial Analysis

DashboardSectorsComparablesScreenerUniverseMicrocapsAI 2nd OrderTheme MapEnergy & MaterialsMacroWatchlistCompareMi CarteraPortfolio

Recent

v0.1
1638.HK$0.07+4.41%
Fair $0.07+0.0%

1638.HK

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.

Real Estate / Real Estate - DevelopmentHKSE

$0.07

+0.00 (+4.41%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.07Fund rank 18/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 29/D
F-Score: 4/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

Book/ROE base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · P/B n/d

Book/ROE base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 100% · confianza 20%

Book/ROE escenarios

weak_data · book/share n/d · quality 100.0/100

Data gap 18/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

29/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific NAV/AFFO model required: REIT/real-estate targets are disabled until FFO/AFFO/NAV/cap-rate data exists. REIT NAV/AFFO valuation requires positive AFFO/share history or TTM AFFO/share; generic FCF remains disabled. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 7.78, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is 4.8%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1638.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$725M

P/E

0.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

1.5x

↓

ROE

481.4%

↑

Gross Margin

4.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

7.78

↑
52-Week Range$0
$0$0

TradingView lightweight chart

1638.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.071Periodo -97.8%
Fair value: $0.071

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-27.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

8.0%

FCF / Net income

0.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $9.50B · net income $52.55B · FCF $763.9M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

4.8%-8.6% pts

Operating margin

-9.0%-6.5% pts

Net margin

553.2%+604.7% pts

FCF margin

8.0%+33.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$9.50B$9.50B$11.56B$26.16B$25.39B
Net Income$52.55B$52.55B$-28.53B$-19.93B$-13.06B
EBITDA$55.83B$55.83B$-27.12B$-16.52B$-10.70B
EPS——-4.07-2.84-1.88
Gross Margin4.8%4.8%2.1%6.5%13.4%
Operating Margin-9.0%-9.0%-13.6%-2.7%-2.6%
Net Margin553.2%553.2%-246.8%-76.2%-51.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity7.787.78-3.34-11.1417.14
Current Ratio1.311.31———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$763.9M$763.9M$-316.4M$-435.7M$-6.33B
Returns
ROE481.4%481.4%70.3%165.4%-166.2%
Valuation
P/E0.010.01———
EV/EBITDA1.521.52———
P/B0.060.06——0.75
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-17.8%-17.8%-55.8%3.0%—
EPS Growth——-43.2%-50.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -55.1%

Total return

-55.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-4.07 → n/d

Residual

-55.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-55.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.