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1853.T$309.00-0.96%
Fair $309.00+0.0%

1853.T

Mori-Gumi Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionTokyo

$309.00

-3.00 (-0.96%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $309.00Fund rank 30/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 50/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 20%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $617.0M · quality 54.3/100

Data gap 30/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

50/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 1853.TLocal privado en este navegador · Mori-Gumi Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.1B

P/E

10.9x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.6x

↓

ROE

6.2%

↑

Gross Margin

8.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$309
$290$352

TradingView lightweight chart

1853.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $309.00Periodo +139.5%
Fair value: $309.00

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.0%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-15.7%

FCF / Net income

-5.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $29.45B · net income $921.0M · FCF $-4.62B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

8.8%-1.7% pts

Operating margin

3.7%-2.4% pts

Net margin

3.1%-0.9% pts

FCF margin

-15.7%-22.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$29.45B$29.45B$27.58B$24.62B$31.32B
Net Income$921.0M$921.0M$685.0M$523.0M$1.25B
EBITDA$1.17B$1.17B$1.17B$947.0M$2.00B
EPS28.1328.1320.9415.9838.33
Gross Margin8.8%8.8%9.0%9.1%10.5%
Operating Margin3.7%3.7%3.9%3.4%6.1%
Net Margin3.1%3.1%2.5%2.1%4.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.060.060.06
Current Ratio1.001.00———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-4.62B$-4.62B$617.0M$711.0M$2.02B
Returns
ROE6.2%6.2%4.8%3.7%9.0%
Valuation
P/E10.9210.9215.9518.097.80
EV/EBITDA5.565.561.880.910.71
P/B0.680.680.760.670.70
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.8%6.8%12.0%-21.4%—
EPS Growth34.3%34.3%31.0%-58.3%—
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.9%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$27.42

Spread vs growth

35.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$33.18

Spread vs growth

31.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$53.43

Spread vs growth

27.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +7.8%

Total return

+7.8%

Start / end P/E

14.3x → 11.0x

EPS bridge

20.94 → 28.13

Residual

-7.9%

EPS growth+34.3%
Multiple rerating-23.1%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.