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v0.1
1903.TW$48.75-1.32%
Fair $48.75+0.0%

1903.TW

Shihlin Paper Corporation

Consumer Defensive / Household & Personal ProductsTaiwan

$48.75

-0.65 (-1.32%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $48.75Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 25/D
F-Score: 5/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-131.7M · quality 42.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 9/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

25/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 1903.TWLocal privado en este navegador · Shihlin Paper Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$12.7B

P/E

37.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

37.9x

↑

ROE

6.1%

↓

Gross Margin

65.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.60

↑
52-Week Range$49
$48$76

TradingView lightweight chart

1903.TW price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $48.75Periodo -7.6%
Fair value: $48.75

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-85.9%

FCF / Net income

-0.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $153.3M · net income $335.7M · FCF $-131.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

65.2%+19.1% pts

Operating margin

-14.3%+48.2% pts

Net margin

219.0%+90.7% pts

FCF margin

-85.9%-154.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$153.3M$153.3M$155.8M$171.1M$165.1M
Net Income$335.7M$335.7M$-21.0M$86.4M$211.8M
EBITDA$407.7M$407.7M$36.1M$142.0M$254.5M
EPS——-0.080.330.81
Gross Margin65.2%65.2%60.0%49.7%46.1%
Operating Margin-14.3%-14.3%-31.0%-37.8%-62.5%
Net Margin219.0%219.0%-13.5%50.5%128.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.600.600.600.620.47
Current Ratio1.131.13———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-131.7M$-131.7M$-330.7M$-124.6M$113.6M
Returns
ROE6.1%6.1%-0.4%2.0%4.1%
Valuation
P/E37.7937.79—169.7061.73
EV/EBITDA37.9137.91452.17120.0160.29
P/B2.292.292.533.392.53
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.6%-1.6%-9.0%3.7%—
EPS Growth——-124.2%-59.3%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -20.0%

Total return

-20.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.08 → n/d

Residual

-20.0%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-20.0%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.