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1904.T$4935.00-1.89%
Fair $4935.00+0.0%

1904.T

Taisei Oncho Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Building Products & EquipmentTokyo

$4935.00

-95.00 (-1.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4935.00Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $488.3M · quality 46.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 1904.TLocal privado en este navegador · Taisei Oncho Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$30.7B

P/E

8.6x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.1x

↓

ROE

9.0%

↑

Gross Margin

14.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.10

↓
52-Week Range$4935
$3800$5630

TradingView lightweight chart

1904.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4,935Periodo +362.9%
Fair value: $4,935

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-0.5%

FCF / Net income

-0.12x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $62.50B · net income $2.49B · FCF $-305.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

14.6%+3.0% pts

Operating margin

5.0%+2.4% pts

Net margin

4.0%+2.0% pts

FCF margin

-0.5%+0.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$62.50B$62.50B$61.06B$46.46B$49.15B
Net Income$2.49B$2.49B$1.96B$1.47B$974.3M
EBITDA$3.93B$3.93B$3.31B$2.29B$1.67B
EPS404.27404.27324.08246.01—
Gross Margin14.6%14.6%13.6%14.1%11.6%
Operating Margin5.0%5.0%4.9%3.7%2.6%
Net Margin4.0%4.0%3.2%3.2%2.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.100.10———
Current Ratio1.731.73———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-305.0M$-305.0M$2.74B$488.3M$-606.6M
Returns
ROE9.0%9.0%7.6%5.8%3.9%
Valuation
P/E8.618.6113.138.02—
EV/EBITDA5.145.144.470.04-0.25
P/B1.101.101.000.470.48
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.4%2.4%31.4%-5.5%—
EPS Growth24.7%24.7%31.7%——
Dividend Yield3.9%3.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

2.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$437.90

Spread vs growth

22.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

5.6%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$529.86

Spread vs growth

19.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

7.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$853.34

Spread vs growth

17.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +33.3%

Total return

+33.3%

Start / end P/E

11.8x → 12.2x

EPS bridge

324.08 → 404.27

Residual

+0.9%

EPS growth+24.7%
Multiple rerating+3.7%
Dividend+3.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+0.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.