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v0.1
1909.HK$1.95-2.50%
Fair $1.95+0.0%

1909.HK

Fire Rock Holdings Limited

Communication Services / Electronic Gaming & MultimediaHKSE

$1.95

-0.05 (-2.50%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.95Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 26/D
F-Score: 1/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-3.2M · quality 45.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 14/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

26/100

D

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. ROE is -50.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1909.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Fire Rock Holdings Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$474M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-50.2%

↓

Gross Margin

65.3%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$2
$1$4

TradingView lightweight chart

1909.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.950Periodo -37.4%
Fair value: $1.950

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+8.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.1%

FCF / Net income

0.05x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $146.2M · net income $-64.4M · FCF $-3.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

65.3%-1.2% pts

Operating margin

3.3%-7.2% pts

Net margin

-44.1%-70.3% pts

FCF margin

-2.1%+0.2% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$146.2M$146.2M$140.6M$134.9M$115.1M
Net Income$-64.4M$-64.4M$-17.1M$559.9M$30.2M
EBITDA$-10.4M$-10.4M$22.2M$592.2M$64.7M
EPS-0.33-0.33-0.092.800.15
Gross Margin65.3%65.3%80.2%79.7%66.6%
Operating Margin3.3%3.3%14.1%0.6%10.4%
Net Margin-44.1%-44.1%-12.1%415.0%26.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.020.01-1.36
Current Ratio6.746.74———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-3.1M$-3.1M$-3.2M$-38.6M$-2.7M
Returns
ROE-50.2%-50.2%-15.2%427.2%-7.0%
Valuation
P/E———1.1173.90
EV/EBITDA——18.950.9141.88
P/B2.992.994.214.73—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth4.0%4.0%4.2%17.3%—
EPS Growth-274.9%-274.9%-103.1%1745.6%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +5.4%

Total return

+5.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.09 → -0.33

Residual

+5.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+5.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.