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v0.1
1958.HK$1.23+2.50%
Fair $1.23+0.0%

1958.HK

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Auto ManufacturersHKSE

$1.23

+0.03 (+2.50%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.23Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $15.4B · quality 71.7/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 61/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.2%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 1958.HKLocal privado en este navegador · BAIC Motor Corporation Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$9.9B

P/E

61.5x

↑

EV/EBITDA

-0.3x

↓

ROE

0.2%

↓

Gross Margin

11.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

1958.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.230Periodo -86.1%
Fair value: $1.230

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.9%

FCF CAGR

-58.2%

FCF margin

0.6%

FCF / Net income

7.39x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $164.05B · net income $122.7M · FCF $906.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

11.6%-10.6% pts

Operating margin

5.4%-8.4% pts

Net margin

0.1%-2.1% pts

FCF margin

0.6%-6.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$164.05B$164.05B$192.50B$197.95B$190.46B
Net Income$122.7M$122.7M$955.8M$3.03B$4.20B
EBITDA$19.42B$19.42B$25.00B$30.32B$34.34B
EPS0.020.020.120.380.52
Gross Margin11.6%11.6%16.0%19.3%22.2%
Operating Margin5.4%5.4%9.3%11.9%13.8%
Net Margin0.1%0.1%0.5%1.5%2.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.160.240.38
Current Ratio0.960.96———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$906.1M$906.1M$19.16B$15.43B$12.43B
Returns
ROE0.2%0.2%1.7%5.3%7.7%
Valuation
P/E61.5061.5018.175.554.37
EV/EBITDA-0.27-0.27-0.29-0.030.05
P/B0.170.170.300.300.33
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-14.8%-14.8%-2.8%3.9%—
EPS Growth-83.3%-83.3%-68.4%-26.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

76.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.11

Spread vs growth

-159.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

45.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.13

Spread vs growth

-129.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

26.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.21

Spread vs growth

-110.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -38.5%

Total return

-38.5%

Start / end P/E

16.7x → 61.5x

EPS bridge

0.12 → 0.02

Residual

-224.2%

EPS growth-83.3%
Multiple rerating+269.0%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-224.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.