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v0.1
1981.HK$0.77+1.32%
Fair $0.77+0.0%

1981.HK

Cathay Group Holdings Inc.

Consumer Defensive / Education & Training ServicesHKSE

$0.77

+0.01 (+1.32%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $0.77Fund rank 34/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $259.8M · quality 59.3/100

Data gap 34/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 79/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 1981.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Cathay Group Holdings Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.2B

P/E

3.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

0.9x

↓

ROE

12.4%

↑

Gross Margin

58.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

N/A

•
52-Week Range$1
$1$2

TradingView lightweight chart

1981.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $0.770Periodo -84.3%
Fair value: $0.770

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+6.2%

FCF CAGR

+18.3%

FCF margin

48.8%

FCF / Net income

1.28x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $787.7M · net income $301.0M · FCF $384.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

58.0%+9.7% pts

Operating margin

41.4%+6.5% pts

Net margin

38.2%+23.5% pts

FCF margin

48.8%+13.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$787.7M$787.7M$782.4M$759.0M$656.8M
Net Income$301.0M$301.0M$92.1M$-196.3M$96.5M
EBITDA$419.7M$419.7M$207.0M$-102.1M$168.7M
EPS——0.06-0.120.06
Gross Margin58.0%58.0%48.7%36.6%48.3%
Operating Margin41.4%41.4%30.8%18.7%34.9%
Net Margin38.2%38.2%11.8%-25.9%14.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity——0.010.010.01
Current Ratio2.512.51———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$384.4M$384.4M$259.8M$75.0M$232.0M
Returns
ROE12.4%12.4%4.1%-8.9%3.9%
Valuation
P/E3.673.6720.11—24.83
EV/EBITDA0.920.925.67—11.24
P/B0.520.520.830.560.97
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.7%0.7%3.1%15.6%—
EPS Growth——146.9%-304.2%—
Dividend Yield8.9%8.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -31.4%

Total return

-31.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.06 → n/d

Residual

-40.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+8.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-40.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.