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2204.T$3030.00-0.82%
Fair $3030.00+0.0%

2204.T

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsTokyo

$3030.00

-25.00 (-0.82%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3030.00Fund rank 31/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 49/C
F-Score: 7/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $3.9B · quality 57.0/100

Data gap 31/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 30/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

49/100

C

Piotroski

7/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 3.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2204.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nakamuraya Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$17.3B

P/E

19.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

5.7x

↓

ROE

3.3%

↓

Gross Margin

36.8%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$3030
$3015$3455

TradingView lightweight chart

2204.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3,030Periodo +10.6%
Fair value: $3,030

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+4.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

11.8%

FCF / Net income

4.95x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $37.25B · net income $884.9M · FCF $4.38B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.8%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

2.9%+3.6% pts

Net margin

2.4%+1.7% pts

FCF margin

11.8%+11.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$37.25B$37.25B$37.77B$35.55B$33.06B
Net Income$884.9M$884.9M$405.1M$-28.2M$232.6M
EBITDA$2.73B$2.73B$2.34B$1.58B$2.05B
EPS152.52152.5268.24-4.7339.02
Gross Margin36.8%36.8%36.4%34.7%36.0%
Operating Margin2.9%2.9%2.2%-0.7%-0.8%
Net Margin2.4%2.4%1.1%-0.1%0.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.110.270.25
Current Ratio1.131.13———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$4.38B$4.38B$3.87B$-121.7M$-58.8M
Returns
ROE3.3%3.3%1.5%-0.1%0.9%
Valuation
P/E19.0419.0445.35—79.57
EV/EBITDA5.675.678.6615.3211.64
P/B0.650.650.690.720.71
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.4%-1.4%6.2%7.6%—
EPS Growth123.5%123.5%1542.7%-112.1%—
Dividend Yield2.5%2.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

20.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$268.86

Spread vs growth

102.7%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.4%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$325.32

Spread vs growth

107.1%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$523.94

Spread vs growth

110.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -0.9%

Total return

-0.9%

Start / end P/E

45.9x → 19.9x

EPS bridge

68.24 → 152.52

Residual

-70.1%

EPS growth+123.5%
Multiple rerating-56.8%
Dividend+2.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-70.1%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.