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2488.HK$8.00+0.13%
Fair $8.00+0.0%

2488.HK

Launch Tech Company Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsHKSE

$8.00

+0.01 (+0.13%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.00Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 59/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $315.9M · quality 61.7/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 52/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

59/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 2488.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Launch Tech Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.3B

P/E

8.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

↓

ROE

28.2%

↑

Gross Margin

47.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.23

↓
52-Week Range$8
$8$15

TradingView lightweight chart

2488.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.000Periodo +595.7%
Fair value: $8.000

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+21.5%

FCF CAGR

+259.0%

FCF margin

20.3%

FCF / Net income

1.24x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.11B · net income $344.3M · FCF $427.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

47.4%+10.6% pts

Operating margin

17.3%+11.8% pts

Net margin

16.3%-11.5% pts

FCF margin

20.3%+19.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.11B$2.11B$1.88B$1.60B$1.18B
Net Income$344.3M$344.3M$339.5M$168.9M$328.0M
EBITDA$385.1M$385.1M$381.2M$205.4M$400.7M
EPS0.830.830.820.390.76
Gross Margin47.4%47.4%47.6%43.0%36.8%
Operating Margin17.3%17.3%18.2%12.4%5.6%
Net Margin16.3%16.3%18.0%10.6%27.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.230.230.220.390.52
Current Ratio1.761.76———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$427.6M$427.6M$315.9M$77.0M$9.2M
Returns
ROE28.2%28.2%27.4%15.8%30.6%
Valuation
P/E8.338.3311.504.863.69
EV/EBITDA7.907.909.513.003.11
P/B2.712.713.150.771.13
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth12.1%12.1%17.7%35.8%—
EPS Growth1.9%1.9%107.7%-48.2%—
Dividend Yield10.1%10.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-5.2%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.71

Spread vs growth

7.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

0.6%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.86

Spread vs growth

1.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

5.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.38

Spread vs growth

-3.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -28.8%

Total return

-28.8%

Start / end P/E

16.0x → 9.6x

EPS bridge

0.82 → 0.83

Residual

-0.8%

EPS growth+1.9%
Multiple rerating-40.1%
Dividend+10.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.8%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.