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v0.1
2490.HK$4.42-1.34%
Fair $4.42+0.0%

2490.HK

LC Logistics, Inc.

Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsHKSE

$4.42

-0.06 (-1.34%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.42Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-270.8M · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 18/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 2490.HKLocal privado en este navegador · LC Logistics, Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.5B

P/E

15.8x

↓

EV/EBITDA

8.6x

↓

ROE

9.3%

↑

Gross Margin

9.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.06

↓
52-Week Range$4
$4$10

TradingView lightweight chart

2490.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.420Periodo +78.9%
Fair value: $4.420

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-25.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-10.7%

FCF / Net income

-1.45x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.87B · net income $138.0M · FCF $-199.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

9.3%-2.5% pts

Operating margin

3.8%-5.8% pts

Net margin

7.4%-0.9% pts

FCF margin

-10.7%-9.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.87B$1.87B$1.95B$1.24B$4.61B
Net Income$138.0M$138.0M$395.8M$118.9M$380.9M
EBITDA$258.0M$258.0M$495.2M$172.8M$439.6M
EPS——0.690.230.67
Gross Margin9.3%9.3%10.8%18.3%11.8%
Operating Margin3.8%3.8%4.6%10.3%9.6%
Net Margin7.4%7.4%20.3%9.6%8.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.060.060.110.050.09
Current Ratio2.312.31———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-199.8M$-199.8M$-381.4M$-270.8M$-35.4M
Returns
ROE9.3%9.3%26.3%10.5%43.3%
Valuation
P/E15.7915.7917.8611.71—
EV/EBITDA8.568.5613.047.20—
P/B1.701.704.691.22—
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-3.8%-3.8%57.2%-73.1%—
EPS Growth——206.7%-66.5%—
Dividend Yield4.4%4.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -51.4%

Total return

-51.4%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.69 → n/d

Residual

-55.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+4.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-55.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.