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2515.HK$1.43+0.00%
Fair $1.43+0.0%

2515.HK

Tianjin Construction Development Group Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Engineering & ConstructionHKSE

$1.43

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1.43Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-35.0M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 7/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -17.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2515.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Tianjin Construction Development Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$370M

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-17.3%

↓

Gross Margin

7.2%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.08

↓
52-Week Range$1
$0$2

TradingView lightweight chart

2515.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1.430Periodo -5.9%
Fair value: $1.430

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.3%

FCF CAGR

+126.0%

FCF margin

13.3%

FCF / Net income

-0.67x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $244.4M · net income $-48.5M · FCF $32.4M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

7.2%-18.0% pts

Operating margin

-6.5%-23.4% pts

Net margin

-19.9%-32.0% pts

FCF margin

13.3%+12.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$244.4M$244.4M$302.5M$319.4M$288.0M
Net Income$-48.5M$-48.5M$21.8M$41.0M$35.1M
EBITDA$-39.3M$-39.3M$30.3M$51.4M$42.4M
EPS——0.110.190.16
Gross Margin7.2%7.2%24.9%25.1%25.2%
Operating Margin-6.5%-6.5%12.2%16.1%16.8%
Net Margin-19.9%-19.9%7.2%12.8%12.2%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.080.080.130.09—
Current Ratio1.591.59———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$32.4M$32.4M$-106.0M$-35.0M$2.8M
Returns
ROE-17.3%-17.3%6.6%18.2%22.4%
Valuation
P/E——3.18——
EV/EBITDA——3.08——
P/B1.101.100.21——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-19.2%-19.2%-5.3%10.9%—
EPS Growth——-42.2%17.0%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +138.3%

Total return

+138.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.11 → n/d

Residual

+138.3%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+138.3%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.