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v0.1
2519.HK$4.80+3.00%
Fair $4.80+0.0%

2519.HK

AuGroup (SHENZHEN) Cross-Border Business Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesHKSE

$4.80

+0.14 (+3.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $4.80Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 46/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $372.8M · quality 58.0/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 77/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

46/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 2519.HKLocal privado en este navegador · AuGroup (SHENZHEN) Cross-Border Business Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.0B

P/E

10.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

5.7x

↓

ROE

5.1%

↑

Gross Margin

26.3%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.56

↑
52-Week Range$5
$3$11

TradingView lightweight chart

2519.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $4.800Periodo -65.3%
Fair value: $4.800

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+24.5%

FCF CAGR

-13.5%

FCF margin

2.7%

FCF / Net income

2.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $13.70B · net income $161.1M · FCF $372.8M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

26.3%-8.6% pts

Operating margin

3.6%-1.4% pts

Net margin

1.2%-1.9% pts

FCF margin

2.7%-5.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$13.70B$13.70B$10.71B$8.68B$7.10B
Net Income$161.1M$161.1M$504.3M$532.0M$219.1M
EBITDA$926.5M$926.5M$1.06B$935.5M$460.2M
EPS——1.291.280.53
Gross Margin26.3%26.3%30.8%34.5%34.9%
Operating Margin3.6%3.6%6.8%8.9%5.1%
Net Margin1.2%1.2%4.7%6.1%3.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.561.561.280.661.06
Current Ratio1.491.49———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$372.8M$372.8M$369.2M$554.0M$576.2M
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%16.4%23.5%12.4%
Valuation
P/E10.6710.6710.05——
EV/EBITDA5.695.697.17——
P/B0.640.641.64——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth27.9%27.9%23.3%22.3%—
EPS Growth——0.7%142.9%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -51.5%

Total return

-51.5%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

1.29 → n/d

Residual

-51.5%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-51.5%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.