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2531.HK$3.56+0.00%
Fair $3.56+0.0%

2531.HK

GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsHKSE

$3.56

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $3.56Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 4/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $24.6M · quality 77.7/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 76/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2531.HKLocal privado en este navegador · GL-Carlink Technology Holding Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$1.3B

P/E

50.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

30.1x

↑

ROE

3.1%

↓

Gross Margin

71.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.14

↓
52-Week Range$4
$3$21

TradingView lightweight chart

2531.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $3.560Periodo -25.8%
Fair value: $3.560

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+20.1%

FCF CAGR

-2.2%

FCF margin

3.2%

FCF / Net income

1.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $717.1M · net income $20.7M · FCF $23.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

71.6%+29.8% pts

Operating margin

2.9%-9.9% pts

Net margin

2.9%-7.8% pts

FCF margin

3.2%-2.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$717.1M$717.1M$700.4M$560.6M$413.9M
Net Income$20.7M$20.7M$44.4M$51.1M$44.1M
EBITDA$36.0M$36.0M$56.9M$75.1M$65.5M
EPS0.060.060.130.140.12
Gross Margin71.6%71.6%62.4%44.9%41.8%
Operating Margin2.9%2.9%7.3%10.8%12.8%
Net Margin2.9%2.9%6.3%9.1%10.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.140.140.070.130.13
Current Ratio2.212.21———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$23.1M$23.1M$40.8M$24.6M$24.7M
Returns
ROE3.1%3.1%6.7%14.0%14.4%
Valuation
P/E50.8650.86196.92——
EV/EBITDA30.1430.14143.16——
P/B1.931.9312.91——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth2.4%2.4%24.9%35.4%—
EPS Growth-53.8%-53.8%-6.8%15.8%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

74.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.32

Spread vs growth

-127.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

44.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.38

Spread vs growth

-98.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

26.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.62

Spread vs growth

-80.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -68.4%

Total return

-68.4%

Start / end P/E

86.6x → 59.3x

EPS bridge

0.13 → 0.06

Residual

+17.0%

EPS growth-53.8%
Multiple rerating-31.5%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+17.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.