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v0.1
2573.HK$5.03-0.40%
Fair $5.03+0.0%

2573.HK

Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / ConfectionersHKSE

$5.03

-0.02 (-0.40%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.03Fund rank 23/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 15%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-42.2M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 23/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 4/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

12/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 3Warnings: 0unknown: 3
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific holding-company NAV/SOTP model required: targets are disabled until look-through holdings, debt and discount data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 2573.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Newtrend Group Holding Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$484M

P/E

31.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

6.7x

↓

ROE

9.1%

↑

Gross Margin

17.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.36

↓
52-Week Range$5
$3$30

TradingView lightweight chart

2573.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.030Periodo -78.1%
Fair value: $5.030

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2024 · 2 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-13.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-13.3%

FCF / Net income

-1.74x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $568.9M · net income $43.4M · FCF $-75.4M

2022-FY → 2024-FY

Gross margin

17.9%-7.7% pts

Operating margin

9.9%-9.7% pts

Net margin

7.6%-8.4% pts

FCF margin

-13.3%-32.4% pts
MetricTTM
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$568.9M$568.9M$446.9M$761.5M
Net Income$43.4M$43.4M$44.7M$122.0M
EBITDA$90.3M$90.3M$86.5M$192.0M
EPS0.450.450.461.27
Gross Margin17.9%17.9%17.9%25.6%
Operating Margin9.9%9.9%8.7%19.5%
Net Margin7.6%7.6%10.0%16.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.360.360.360.46
Current Ratio1.901.90——
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-75.4M$-75.4M$-42.2M$145.6M
Returns
ROE9.1%9.1%10.3%30.5%
Valuation
P/E31.4431.44——
EV/EBITDA6.746.74——
P/B1.011.01——
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth27.3%27.3%-41.3%—
EPS Growth-2.8%-2.8%-63.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

-0.4%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.45

Spread vs growth

-2.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

3.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$0.54

Spread vs growth

-6.5%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

6.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.87

Spread vs growth

-9.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · available periodreconcilia total -78.1%

Total return

-78.1%

Start / end P/E

49.4x → 11.2x

EPS bridge

0.46 → 0.45

Residual

+2.2%

EPS growth-2.8%
Multiple rerating-77.4%
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+2.2%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.