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2594.T$1936.00-0.77%
Fair $1936.00+0.0%

2594.T

Key Coffee Inc.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsTokyo

$1936.00

-15.00 (-0.77%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $1936.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 39/D
F-Score: 3/9
Low Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-2.4B · quality 49.0/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 12/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

39/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. ROE is 1.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2594.TLocal privado en este navegador · Key Coffee Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$41.5B

P/E

71.4x

↑

EV/EBITDA

25.2x

↑

ROE

1.1%

↓

Gross Margin

18.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.27

↓
52-Week Range$1936
$1904$2078

TradingView lightweight chart

2594.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $1,936Periodo +47.2%
Fair value: $1,936

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+11.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.1%

FCF / Net income

-7.00x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $77.78B · net income $342.0M · FCF $-2.39B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.8%-6.8% pts

Operating margin

0.8%+0.1% pts

Net margin

0.4%-0.9% pts

FCF margin

-3.1%-3.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$77.78B$77.78B$73.80B$63.30B$55.68B
Net Income$342.0M$342.0M$180.0M$173.0M$742.0M
EBITDA$1.77B$1.77B$1.50B$1.28B$2.00B
EPS10.0010.008.428.0834.69
Gross Margin18.8%18.8%20.6%22.5%25.7%
Operating Margin0.8%0.8%1.0%0.4%0.7%
Net Margin0.4%0.4%0.2%0.3%1.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.270.270.170.110.00
Current Ratio1.261.26———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-2.39B$-2.39B$-684.0M$-4.14B$-68.0M
Returns
ROE1.1%1.1%0.6%0.6%2.5%
Valuation
P/E71.3971.39239.31252.2357.91
EV/EBITDA25.2425.2429.0933.4718.78
P/B1.351.351.401.441.42
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.4%5.4%16.6%13.7%—
EPS Growth18.8%18.8%4.2%-76.7%—
Dividend Yield0.6%0.6%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

158.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$171.79

Spread vs growth

-139.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

83.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$207.86

Spread vs growth

-64.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

42.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$334.77

Spread vs growth

-23.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.8%

Total return

-2.8%

Start / end P/E

238.1x → 193.6x

EPS bridge

8.42 → 10.00

Residual

-3.5%

EPS growth+18.8%
Multiple rerating-18.7%
Dividend+0.6%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-3.5%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.