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2625.HK$2.36-3.28%
Fair $2.36+0.0%

2625.HK

Jiangsu Horizon Chain Supermarket Company Limited

Consumer Cyclical / Department StoresHKSE

$2.36

-0.08 (-3.28%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2.36Fund rank 26/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 37/D
F-Score: 2/9
Margin Compression

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $28.5M · quality 41.0/100

Data gap 26/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 24/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

37/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 2625.HKLocal privado en este navegador · Jiangsu Horizon Chain Supermarket Company Limited
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$556M

P/E

11.2x

↓

EV/EBITDA

6.6x

↓

ROE

5.1%

↑

Gross Margin

18.7%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.94

↑
52-Week Range$2
$2$9

TradingView lightweight chart

2625.HK price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2.360Periodo -5.6%
Fair value: $2.360

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-7.0%

FCF / Net income

-2.96x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.54B · net income $36.6M · FCF $-108.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

18.7%-4.0% pts

Operating margin

5.5%-1.2% pts

Net margin

2.4%-1.4% pts

FCF margin

-7.0%-10.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.54B$1.54B$1.35B$1.40B$1.33B
Net Income$36.6M$36.6M$42.7M$50.1M$50.0M
EBITDA$151.8M$151.8M$157.3M$161.3M$155.6M
EPS——0.200.230.23
Gross Margin18.7%18.7%21.4%21.5%22.7%
Operating Margin5.5%5.5%5.6%6.3%6.7%
Net Margin2.4%2.4%3.2%3.6%3.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.940.941.091.201.11
Current Ratio1.471.47———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-108.3M$-108.3M$71.3M$28.5M$43.2M
Returns
ROE5.1%5.1%8.2%10.5%11.6%
Valuation
P/E11.2411.24———
EV/EBITDA6.566.56———
P/B0.770.77———
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.3%14.3%-3.6%5.5%—
EPS Growth——-11.5%0.1%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -25.1%

Total return

-25.1%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

0.20 → n/d

Residual

-25.1%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-25.1%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.