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2790.T$2074.00-1.10%
Fair $2074.00+0.0%

2790.T

NAFCO Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Home Improvement RetailTokyo

$2074.00

-23.00 (-1.10%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $2074.00Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 1/9
Declining RevenueMargin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.1B · quality 48.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

1/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 0.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 2790.TLocal privado en este navegador · NAFCO Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$51.0B

P/E

229.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

9.1x

↓

ROE

0.1%

↓

Gross Margin

34.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.18

↓
52-Week Range$2074
$1687$2375

TradingView lightweight chart

2790.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $2,074Periodo -1.7%
Fair value: $2,074

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-4.2%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-3.6%

FCF / Net income

-35.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $181.85B · net income $183.0M · FCF $-6.50B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

34.2%-0.7% pts

Operating margin

0.7%-5.1% pts

Net margin

0.1%-3.7% pts

FCF margin

-3.6%-2.4% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$181.85B$181.85B$192.97B$202.64B$206.88B
Net Income$183.0M$183.0M$3.11B$5.64B$7.96B
EBITDA$7.04B$7.04B$10.95B$14.98B$18.31B
EPS6.956.95110.32197.42278.75
Gross Margin34.2%34.2%34.2%34.5%34.9%
Operating Margin0.7%0.7%2.8%4.5%5.8%
Net Margin0.1%0.1%1.6%2.8%3.8%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.180.180.170.160.16
Current Ratio1.741.74———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-6.50B$-6.50B$4.14B$6.47B$-2.38B
Returns
ROE0.1%0.1%1.9%3.5%5.0%
Valuation
P/E229.93229.9325.258.776.08
EV/EBITDA9.059.056.582.652.20
P/B0.350.350.490.310.31
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-5.8%-5.8%-4.8%-2.0%—
EPS Growth-93.7%-93.7%-44.1%-29.2%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

198.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$184.03

Spread vs growth

-291.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

100.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$222.68

Spread vs growth

-193.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

48.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$358.63

Spread vs growth

-142.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +24.6%

Total return

+24.6%

Start / end P/E

15.4x → 298.4x

EPS bridge

110.32 → 6.95

Residual

-1718.7%

EPS growth-93.7%
Multiple rerating+1834.3%
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1718.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.