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2815.T$5380.00+1.51%
Fair $5380.00+0.0%

2815.T

ARIAKE JAPAN Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsTokyo

$5380.00

+80.00 (+1.51%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5380.00Fund rank 35/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 53/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $5.8B · quality 72.3/100

Data gap 35/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 68/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

53/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 2815.TLocal privado en este navegador · ARIAKE JAPAN Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$171.4B

P/E

17.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.9x

↓

ROE

6.5%

↓

Gross Margin

30.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$5380
$5100$6890

TradingView lightweight chart

2815.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5,380Periodo -5.4%
Fair value: $5,380

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.5%

FCF CAGR

+23.6%

FCF margin

17.1%

FCF / Net income

1.37x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $65.40B · net income $8.21B · FCF $11.21B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.2%-4.2% pts

Operating margin

17.0%-3.3% pts

Net margin

12.5%-2.1% pts

FCF margin

17.1%+5.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$65.40B$65.40B$59.98B$55.70B$52.66B
Net Income$8.21B$8.21B$7.35B$6.39B$7.71B
EBITDA$14.25B$14.25B$12.85B$11.20B$12.99B
EPS257.67257.67230.88200.48242.10
Gross Margin30.2%30.2%28.0%29.3%34.4%
Operating Margin17.0%17.0%14.4%15.2%20.3%
Net Margin12.5%12.5%12.3%11.5%14.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.000.000.00
Current Ratio8.298.29———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$11.21B$11.21B$5.76B$2.57B$5.93B
Returns
ROE6.5%6.5%6.2%5.8%7.3%
Valuation
P/E17.8617.8621.9224.9220.90
EV/EBITDA7.897.898.719.137.52
P/B1.351.351.351.441.53
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth9.0%9.0%7.7%5.8%—
EPS Growth11.6%11.6%15.2%-17.2%—
Dividend Yield4.5%4.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

22.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$477.39

Spread vs growth

-11.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$577.64

Spread vs growth

-5.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$930.29

Spread vs growth

-2.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.0%

Total return

-7.0%

Start / end P/E

26.3x → 20.9x

EPS bridge

230.88 → 257.67

Residual

-2.4%

EPS growth+11.6%
Multiple rerating-20.7%
Dividend+4.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-2.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.