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2914.T$6068.00-1.61%
Fair $6068.00+0.0%

2914.T

Japan Tobacco Inc.

Consumer Defensive / TobaccoTokyo

$6068.00

-99.00 (-1.61%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $6068.00Fund rank 37/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 52/C
F-Score: 8/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 22% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $449.7B · quality 77.0/100

Data gap 37/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 85/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

52/100

C

Piotroski

8/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 2914.TLocal privado en este navegador · Japan Tobacco Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$10.77T

P/E

21.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

10.3x

↑

ROE

12.5%

↑

Gross Margin

56.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.41

↑
52-Week Range$6068
$4139$6474

TradingView lightweight chart

2914.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $6,068Periodo +706.9%
Fair value: $6,068

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.3%

FCF CAGR

-2.9%

FCF margin

10.1%

FCF / Net income

0.69x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.47T · net income $510.18B · FCF $351.67B

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

56.2%-2.8% pts

Operating margin

24.6%+0.3% pts

Net margin

14.7%-1.9% pts

FCF margin

10.1%-4.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3467.68B$3467.68B$3056.71B$2841.08B$2657.83B
Net Income$510.18B$510.18B$179.24B$482.29B$442.72B
EBITDA$1130.88B$1130.88B$563.07B$894.23B$884.37B
EPS287.33287.33100.94271.63249.36
Gross Margin56.2%56.2%54.9%56.8%59.0%
Operating Margin24.6%24.6%9.9%23.4%24.3%
Net Margin14.7%14.7%5.9%17.0%16.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.410.410.460.300.27
Current Ratio1.881.88———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$351.67B$351.67B$479.64B$449.75B$384.39B
Returns
ROE12.5%12.5%4.8%12.6%12.5%
Valuation
P/E21.5821.5840.4213.8310.47
EV/EBITDA10.2810.2814.017.575.34
P/B2.642.641.921.741.31
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth13.4%13.4%7.6%6.9%—
EPS Growth184.7%184.7%-62.8%8.9%—
Dividend Yield3.9%3.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

23.3%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$538.43

Spread vs growth

161.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$651.50

Spread vs growth

166.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1049.26

Spread vs growth

170.8%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +39.5%

Total return

+39.5%

Start / end P/E

44.4x → 21.1x

EPS bridge

100.94 → 287.33

Residual

-96.7%

EPS growth+184.7%
Multiple rerating-52.4%
Dividend+3.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-96.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.