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2961.T$5100.00+0.00%
Fair $5100.00+0.0%

2961.T

Nitcho Corporation

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryTokyo

$5100.00

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5100.00Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 64/B
F-Score: 2/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $293.2M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 10/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

64/100

B

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 2961.TLocal privado en este navegador · Nitcho Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.7B

P/E

10.0x

↓

EV/EBITDA

2.4x

↓

ROE

8.0%

↑

Gross Margin

28.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.05

↓
52-Week Range$5100
$3890$5250

TradingView lightweight chart

2961.T price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5,100Periodo +89.7%
Fair value: $5,100

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-4.9%

FCF / Net income

-1.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $18.12B · net income $601.1M · FCF $-887.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

28.6%+0.8% pts

Operating margin

4.7%+2.4% pts

Net margin

3.3%+2.0% pts

FCF margin

-4.9%-1.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$18.12B$18.12B$18.44B$17.64B$15.47B
Net Income$601.1M$601.1M$700.2M$332.3M$205.9M
EBITDA$1.08B$1.08B$1.23B$697.2M$505.8M
EPS——629.27292.61185.64
Gross Margin28.6%28.6%29.1%26.3%27.9%
Operating Margin4.7%4.7%5.7%3.1%2.2%
Net Margin3.3%3.3%3.8%1.9%1.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.050.050.050.060.08
Current Ratio2.482.48———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-887.5M$-887.5M$293.2M$1.70B$-474.7M
Returns
ROE8.0%8.0%10.0%5.1%3.3%
Valuation
P/E10.0310.035.619.7313.01
EV/EBITDA2.402.40-0.22-1.260.24
P/B0.760.760.560.500.42
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.8%-1.8%4.5%14.1%—
EPS Growth——115.1%57.6%—
Dividend Yield3.5%3.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +32.3%

Total return

+32.3%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

629.27 → n/d

Residual

+28.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+3.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+28.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.