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300039.SZ$5.40+1.50%
Fair $5.40+0.0%

300039.SZ

Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd

Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericShenzhen

$5.40

+0.08 (+1.50%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $5.40Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 3/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $203.7M · quality 74.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 69/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 300039.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.6B

P/E

21.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.1x

↑

ROE

6.3%

↑

Gross Margin

80.7%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.00

↓
52-Week Range$5
$5$7

TradingView lightweight chart

300039.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $5.400Periodo +15.6%
Fair value: $5.400

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.0%

FCF CAGR

-16.1%

FCF margin

17.7%

FCF / Net income

0.73x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.15B · net income $278.6M · FCF $203.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

80.7%+2.9% pts

Operating margin

23.6%+5.4% pts

Net margin

24.2%+7.1% pts

FCF margin

17.7%-13.1% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.15B$1.15B$1.47B$1.59B$1.12B
Net Income$278.6M$278.6M$375.6M$327.9M$190.8M
EBITDA$357.2M$357.2M$470.3M$367.5M$257.9M
EPS0.270.270.360.310.18
Gross Margin80.7%80.7%81.5%80.4%77.9%
Operating Margin23.6%23.6%25.0%20.7%18.3%
Net Margin24.2%24.2%25.5%20.6%17.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.000.000.00——
Current Ratio11.0911.09———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$203.7M$203.7M$138.4M$353.6M$344.8M
Returns
ROE6.3%6.3%9.2%8.1%5.1%
Valuation
P/E21.6021.6016.6820.7044.13
EV/EBITDA13.0813.0812.0716.8329.96
P/B1.281.281.531.682.24
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-21.8%-21.8%-7.6%42.5%—
EPS Growth-25.8%-25.8%14.5%71.9%—
Dividend Yield2.4%2.4%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

21.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.48

Spread vs growth

-47.5%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

16.8%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.58

Spread vs growth

-42.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.93

Spread vs growth

-39.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -8.2%

Total return

-8.2%

Start / end P/E

16.8x → 20.3x

EPS bridge

0.36 → 0.27

Residual

-5.3%

EPS growth-25.8%
Multiple rerating+20.6%
Dividend+2.4%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-5.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.