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300040.SZ$7.82-1.88%
Fair $7.82+0.0%

300040.SZ

Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryShenzhen

$7.82

-0.15 (-1.88%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.82Fund rank 28/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 31/D
F-Score: 6/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 19%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $88.6M · quality 43.7/100

Data gap 28/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 28/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

31/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 1.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300040.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.0B

P/E

111.7x

↑

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

↑

ROE

1.6%

↓

Gross Margin

27.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.90

↑
52-Week Range$8
$6$9

TradingView lightweight chart

300040.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.970Periodo +6.6%
Fair value: $7.820

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+3.0%

FCF CAGR

+2.9%

FCF margin

11.9%

FCF / Net income

4.24x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.45B · net income $40.9M · FCF $173.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

27.4%-12.0% pts

Operating margin

11.1%-14.0% pts

Net margin

2.8%-8.3% pts

FCF margin

11.9%-0.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.45B$1.45B$1.48B$1.21B$1.33B
Net Income$40.9M$40.9M$-544.8M$94.2M$147.6M
EBITDA$447.2M$447.2M$-119.8M$506.5M$599.1M
EPS0.070.07-0.930.160.25
Gross Margin27.4%27.4%27.4%29.8%39.3%
Operating Margin11.1%11.1%13.2%15.5%25.1%
Net Margin2.8%2.8%-36.8%7.8%11.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.900.901.271.100.99
Current Ratio1.971.97———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$173.6M$173.6M$-175.7M$88.6M$159.3M
Returns
ROE1.6%1.6%-22.9%3.3%5.2%
Valuation
P/E111.71111.71—34.8724.40
EV/EBITDA14.8214.82—11.929.92
P/B1.771.771.631.131.27
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.9%-1.9%22.1%-8.9%—
EPS Growth107.5%107.5%-681.3%-36.0%—
Dividend Yield0.7%0.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

114.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.69

Spread vs growth

-7.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

64.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.84

Spread vs growth

43.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

34.5%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.35

Spread vs growth

73.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -7.0%

Total return

-7.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.93 → 0.07

Residual

-7.8%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-7.8%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.