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300138.SZ$10.62+0.95%
Fair $10.62+0.0%

300138.SZ

ChenGuang Biotech Group Co., Ltd.

Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsShenzhen

$10.62

+0.10 (+0.95%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $10.62Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 33/D
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-372.4M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 8/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

33/100

D

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific biotech pipeline model required: targets are disabled until product, probability, peak-sales and cash-runway data exists.
Thesis & Journal · 300138.SZLocal privado en este navegador · ChenGuang Biotech Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.1B

P/E

14.4x

↓

EV/EBITDA

12.3x

↑

ROE

10.9%

↑

Gross Margin

13.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.51

↑
52-Week Range$11
$10$16

TradingView lightweight chart

300138.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $10.62Periodo +34.0%
Fair value: $10.62

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.4%

FCF CAGR

-48.2%

FCF margin

1.2%

FCF / Net income

0.21x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $6.56B · net income $368.9M · FCF $77.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

13.1%-0.8% pts

Operating margin

7.3%-0.7% pts

Net margin

5.6%-1.3% pts

FCF margin

1.2%-7.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$6.56B$6.56B$6.99B$6.87B$6.30B
Net Income$368.9M$368.9M$94.0M$479.7M$434.0M
EBITDA$712.9M$712.9M$388.3M$792.2M$714.3M
EPS0.760.760.180.900.81
Gross Margin13.1%13.1%8.0%11.6%13.9%
Operating Margin7.3%7.3%3.7%7.6%8.1%
Net Margin5.6%5.6%1.3%7.0%6.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.511.511.591.220.90
Current Ratio1.241.24———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$77.7M$77.7M$-372.4M$-777.7M$558.8M
Returns
ROE10.9%10.9%3.0%13.8%13.7%
Valuation
P/E14.3514.3546.0914.3822.94
EV/EBITDA12.3412.3419.2212.2616.31
P/B1.511.511.391.993.15
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.2%-6.2%1.8%9.1%—
EPS Growth320.0%320.0%-79.8%10.7%—
Dividend Yield2.8%2.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

7.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.94

Spread vs growth

312.8%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

8.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.14

Spread vs growth

311.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.2%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.84

Spread vs growth

310.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -2.2%

Total return

-2.2%

Start / end P/E

61.6x → 13.9x

EPS bridge

0.18 → 0.76

Residual

-247.7%

EPS growth+320.0%
Multiple rerating-77.4%
Dividend+2.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-247.7%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.