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300248.SZ$8.75+2.28%
Fair $8.75+0.0%

300248.SZ

Newcapec Electronics Co., Ltd.

Technology / Scientific & Technical InstrumentsShenzhen

$8.75

+0.20 (+2.28%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $8.75Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 3/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $46.7M · quality 46.0/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 16/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300248.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Newcapec Electronics Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.2B

P/E

72.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

20.0x

↑

ROE

3.5%

↓

Gross Margin

56.0%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.07

↓
52-Week Range$9
$9$17

TradingView lightweight chart

300248.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $8.970Periodo +91.8%
Fair value: $8.750

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-2.9%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

4.8%

FCF / Net income

0.60x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $978.5M · net income $78.1M · FCF $46.7M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

56.0%-0.2% pts

Operating margin

11.1%-3.6% pts

Net margin

8.0%-2.5% pts

FCF margin

4.8%+11.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$978.5M$978.5M$984.2M$1.06B$1.07B
Net Income$78.1M$78.1M$110.2M$107.5M$112.4M
EBITDA$198.9M$198.9M$227.2M$199.7M$200.2M
EPS0.160.160.230.230.24
Gross Margin56.0%56.0%58.9%57.9%56.2%
Operating Margin11.1%11.1%14.9%13.7%14.8%
Net Margin8.0%8.0%11.2%10.1%10.5%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.070.070.050.060.05
Current Ratio4.234.23———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$46.7M$46.7M$106.1M$-47.2M$-73.9M
Returns
ROE3.5%3.5%5.1%5.1%5.6%
Valuation
P/E72.9272.9238.4241.9138.69
EV/EBITDA19.9919.9917.4421.1119.96
P/B1.891.891.962.142.15
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-0.6%-0.6%-7.3%-0.8%—
EPS Growth-29.1%-29.1%2.5%-4.4%—
Dividend Yield0.9%0.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

67.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.78

Spread vs growth

-97.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

41.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.94

Spread vs growth

-70.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

24.9%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.51

Spread vs growth

-54.0%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -35.4%

Total return

-35.4%

Start / end P/E

60.8x → 54.7x

EPS bridge

0.23 → 0.16

Residual

+2.9%

EPS growth-29.1%
Multiple rerating-10.1%
Dividend+0.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+2.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.