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300349.SZ$13.33+0.60%
Fair $13.33+0.0%

300349.SZ

Goldcard Smart Group Co., Ltd.

Technology / Scientific & Technical InstrumentsShenzhen

$13.33

+0.08 (+0.60%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $13.33Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 23% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $189.3M · quality 79.3/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 78/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 300349.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Goldcard Smart Group Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.6B

P/E

22.2x

↑

EV/EBITDA

11.5x

↓

ROE

5.9%

↑

Gross Margin

37.1%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.09

↓
52-Week Range$13
$11$21

TradingView lightweight chart

300349.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $13.25Periodo +115.5%
Fair value: $13.33

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+5.6%

FCF CAGR

+2.7%

FCF margin

5.9%

FCF / Net income

0.71x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.23B · net income $265.9M · FCF $189.3M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

37.1%-1.1% pts

Operating margin

9.7%-2.4% pts

Net margin

8.2%-1.6% pts

FCF margin

5.9%-0.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.23B$3.23B$3.07B$3.17B$2.74B
Net Income$265.9M$265.9M$360.1M$408.7M$270.5M
EBITDA$414.8M$414.8M$521.6M$584.3M$377.0M
EPS0.640.640.871.000.64
Gross Margin37.1%37.1%39.7%41.3%38.2%
Operating Margin9.7%9.7%13.7%14.3%12.1%
Net Margin8.2%8.2%11.7%12.9%9.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.090.090.110.190.07
Current Ratio1.861.86———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$189.3M$189.3M$190.7M$142.0M$174.9M
Returns
ROE5.9%5.9%8.1%9.5%6.9%
Valuation
P/E22.2222.2214.6012.3415.39
EV/EBITDA11.4711.479.188.6610.29
P/B1.231.231.191.171.06
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth5.3%5.3%-3.4%15.9%—
EPS Growth-26.4%-26.4%-13.0%56.3%—
Dividend Yield1.9%1.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

22.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.18

Spread vs growth

-49.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

17.5%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.43

Spread vs growth

-43.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

13.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.30

Spread vs growth

-40.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +10.5%

Total return

+10.5%

Start / end P/E

14.1x → 20.8x

EPS bridge

0.87 → 0.64

Residual

-12.6%

EPS growth-26.4%
Multiple rerating+47.7%
Dividend+1.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-12.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.