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300388.SZ$7.66-1.79%
Fair $7.66+0.0%

300388.SZ

CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Waste ManagementShenzhen

$7.66

-0.14 (-1.79%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $7.66Fund rank 20/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 26/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining Revenue

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 14%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-243.6M · quality 25.7/100

Data gap 20/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 11/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

26/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 1unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years
Thesis & Journal · 300388.SZLocal privado en este navegador · CECEP Guozhen Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.2B

P/E

13.7x

↓

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

↑

ROE

7.6%

↑

Gross Margin

29.6%

↑

Debt/Equity

1.89

↑
52-Week Range$8
$7$11

TradingView lightweight chart

300388.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $7.800Periodo +141.0%
Fair value: $7.660

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.6%

FCF / Net income

-0.68x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.67B · net income $356.1M · FCF $-243.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

29.6%+4.6% pts

Operating margin

21.9%+3.8% pts

Net margin

9.7%-0.2% pts

FCF margin

-6.6%-6.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.67B$3.67B$3.84B$4.13B$4.10B
Net Income$356.1M$356.1M$366.7M$392.3M$404.9M
EBITDA$1.22B$1.22B$1.20B$1.24B$1.31B
EPS0.520.520.540.570.58
Gross Margin29.6%29.6%29.0%27.0%24.9%
Operating Margin21.9%21.9%21.6%19.8%18.0%
Net Margin9.7%9.7%9.6%9.5%9.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.891.891.851.972.04
Current Ratio0.980.98———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-243.6M$-243.6M$59.2M$-328.5M$-11.7M
Returns
ROE7.6%7.6%8.2%9.3%10.3%
Valuation
P/E13.6813.6813.0911.5510.88
EV/EBITDA10.8910.8910.149.658.59
P/B1.111.111.071.081.12
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-4.3%-4.3%-7.0%0.7%—
EPS Growth-2.9%-2.9%-6.2%-0.2%—
Dividend Yield2.9%2.9%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

9.1%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.68

Spread vs growth

-12.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

9.5%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$0.82

Spread vs growth

-12.4%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

9.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

-12.6%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +11.6%

Total return

+11.6%

Start / end P/E

13.1x → 14.7x

EPS bridge

0.54 → 0.52

Residual

-0.3%

EPS growth-2.9%
Multiple rerating+11.9%
Dividend+2.9%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-0.3%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.