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300407.SZ$12.27-1.52%
Fair $12.27+0.0%

300407.SZ

Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co.,Ltd

Industrials / RailroadsShenzhen

$12.27

-0.19 (-1.52%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.27Fund rank 36/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 51/C
F-Score: 5/9
Margin CompressionLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 24% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $190.8M · quality 72.0/100

Data gap 36/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 65/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

51/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Operating margin has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.6%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300407.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Tianjin Keyvia Electric Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.2B

P/E

51.1x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.5x

↑

ROE

3.6%

↓

Gross Margin

24.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.13

↓
52-Week Range$12
$10$15

TradingView lightweight chart

300407.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.46Periodo +54.9%
Fair value: $12.27

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+12.0%

FCF CAGR

+96.0%

FCF margin

16.6%

FCF / Net income

6.32x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.69B · net income $70.4M · FCF $444.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

24.0%-4.4% pts

Operating margin

5.3%-4.5% pts

Net margin

2.6%-2.0% pts

FCF margin

16.6%+13.5% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.69B$2.69B$2.21B$2.00B$1.91B
Net Income$70.4M$70.4M$93.9M$96.3M$89.0M
EBITDA$219.3M$219.3M$216.0M$205.9M$193.4M
EPS0.220.220.300.310.29
Gross Margin24.0%24.0%25.3%26.4%28.5%
Operating Margin5.3%5.3%6.3%6.3%9.8%
Net Margin2.6%2.6%4.2%4.8%4.7%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.130.130.130.110.22
Current Ratio1.901.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$444.6M$444.6M$190.8M$141.0M$59.0M
Returns
ROE3.6%3.6%5.2%5.4%5.7%
Valuation
P/E51.1351.1332.1330.0625.93
EV/EBITDA13.5313.5311.0211.009.77
P/B2.042.041.681.631.48
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth21.4%21.4%10.6%4.5%—
EPS Growth-26.7%-26.7%-3.2%6.9%—
Dividend Yield0.8%0.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

70.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.09

Spread vs growth

-97.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.32

Spread vs growth

-69.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.4%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.12

Spread vs growth

-52.1%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +20.7%

Total return

+20.7%

Start / end P/E

34.1x → 55.8x

EPS bridge

0.30 → 0.22

Residual

-16.9%

EPS growth-26.7%
Multiple rerating+63.6%
Dividend+0.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-16.9%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.