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300439.SZ$9.15-1.51%
Fair $9.15+0.0%

300439.SZ

Medicalsystem Biotechnology Co., Ltd

Healthcare / Diagnostics & ResearchShenzhen

$9.15

-0.14 (-1.51%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.15Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 34/D
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $75.2M · quality 61.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 35/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

34/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Sector-specific biotech pipeline model required: targets are disabled until product, probability, peak-sales and cash-runway data exists. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 2.1%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300439.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Medicalsystem Biotechnology Co., Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.5B

P/E

53.8x

↑

EV/EBITDA

13.6x

↑

ROE

2.1%

↑

Gross Margin

36.8%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.02

↓
52-Week Range$9
$9$12

TradingView lightweight chart

300439.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.290Periodo -29.6%
Fair value: $9.150

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-14.8%

FCF CAGR

-34.0%

FCF margin

4.9%

FCF / Net income

1.19x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.54B · net income $63.2M · FCF $75.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

36.8%-1.4% pts

Operating margin

4.0%-8.6% pts

Net margin

4.1%-3.9% pts

FCF margin

4.9%-5.6% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.54B$1.54B$1.74B$1.89B$2.49B
Net Income$63.2M$63.2M$258.0M$256.6M$198.5M
EBITDA$221.5M$221.5M$495.1M$476.0M$430.6M
EPS0.160.160.670.670.52
Gross Margin36.8%36.8%44.6%44.1%38.2%
Operating Margin4.0%4.0%14.1%13.4%12.6%
Net Margin4.1%4.1%14.8%13.6%8.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.020.020.030.030.13
Current Ratio3.463.46———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$75.2M$75.2M$-22.7M$353.2M$261.5M
Returns
ROE2.1%2.1%8.8%9.4%7.9%
Valuation
P/E53.8253.8214.8517.2822.96
EV/EBITDA13.6213.626.437.509.48
P/B1.221.221.301.631.82
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-11.7%-11.7%-7.6%-24.2%—
EPS Growth-76.1%-76.1%0.0%28.8%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

71.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.81

Spread vs growth

-148.0%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

43.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.98

Spread vs growth

-119.9%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

25.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.58

Spread vs growth

-101.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -10.7%

Total return

-10.7%

Start / end P/E

15.5x → 57.2x

EPS bridge

0.67 → 0.16

Residual

-204.0%

EPS growth-76.1%
Multiple rerating+268.1%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-204.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.