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300464.SZ$9.06-2.69%
Fair $9.06+0.0%

300464.SZ

Guangdong SACA Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesShenzhen

$9.06

-0.25 (-2.69%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $9.06Fund rank 21/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 40/C
F-Score: 6/9
High DebtDeclining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 35% · confianza 11%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $49.7M · quality 24.3/100

Data gap 21/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

40/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 3unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Debt-to-Equity ratio is 2.77, above the 2.0 threshold Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is 3.5%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300464.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangdong SACA Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.1B

P/E

453.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

36.4x

↑

ROE

3.5%

↓

Gross Margin

21.1%

↓

Debt/Equity

2.77

↑
52-Week Range$9
$5$11

TradingView lightweight chart

300464.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $9.310Periodo +58.4%
Fair value: $9.060

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-14.0%

FCF CAGR

-8.2%

FCF margin

5.4%

FCF / Net income

16.48x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.50B · net income $4.9M · FCF $80.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

21.1%-2.4% pts

Operating margin

5.7%+13.5% pts

Net margin

0.3%+11.4% pts

FCF margin

5.4%+1.0% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.50B$1.50B$1.51B$1.63B$2.35B
Net Income$4.9M$4.9M$-459.8M$-76.1M$-260.3M
EBITDA$117.0M$117.0M$-293.4M$82.4M$-45.0M
EPS0.010.01-0.98-0.19-0.74
Gross Margin21.1%21.1%20.0%26.3%23.5%
Operating Margin5.7%5.7%1.2%0.2%-7.9%
Net Margin0.3%0.3%-30.5%-4.7%-11.1%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity2.772.772.710.646.05
Current Ratio0.710.71———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$80.1M$80.1M$49.7M$-61.9M$103.5M
Returns
ROE3.5%3.5%-353.8%-13.5%-168.6%
Valuation
P/E453.00453.00———
EV/EBITDA36.4336.43—31.43—
P/B29.4929.4917.144.3014.20
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-1.0%-1.0%-7.1%-30.8%—
EPS Growth101.1%101.1%-421.3%74.4%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

323.3%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.80

Spread vs growth

-222.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

146.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$0.97

Spread vs growth

-45.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

64.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.57

Spread vs growth

36.3%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +68.7%

Total return

+68.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.98 → 0.01

Residual

+68.7%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+68.7%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.