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300609.SZ$37.76-1.23%
Fair $37.76+0.0%

300609.SZ

Winner Technology Co., Inc.

Technology / Software - ApplicationShenzhen

$37.76

-0.47 (-1.23%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $37.76Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 19/F
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 33% · confianza 21%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $-18.6M · quality 58.3/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 26/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

19/100

F

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -8.9%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300609.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Winner Technology Co., Inc.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.5B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

N/A

•

ROE

-8.9%

↓

Gross Margin

48.5%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.10

↓
52-Week Range$38
$29$63

TradingView lightweight chart

300609.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $38.23Periodo +197.3%
Fair value: $37.76

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-5.3%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-6.0%

FCF / Net income

0.22x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $307.2M · net income $-83.5M · FCF $-18.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

48.5%+4.1% pts

Operating margin

-16.6%-7.0% pts

Net margin

-27.2%-16.7% pts

FCF margin

-6.0%+7.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$307.2M$307.2M$363.3M$376.2M$361.1M
Net Income$-83.5M$-83.5M$-23.9M$-34.0M$-37.7M
EBITDA$-41.6M$-41.6M$53.4M$29.2M$1.9M
EPS-0.69-0.69-0.20-0.28-0.31
Gross Margin48.5%48.5%50.7%49.9%44.4%
Operating Margin-16.6%-16.6%-2.5%-5.3%-9.5%
Net Margin-27.2%-27.2%-6.6%-9.0%-10.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.100.100.040.050.03
Current Ratio2.152.15———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-18.6M$-18.6M$5.4M$-88.6M$-50.4M
Returns
ROE-8.9%-8.9%-2.3%-3.1%-3.6%
Valuation
EV/EBITDA——44.4398.93948.90
P/B4.874.872.532.891.90
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-15.5%-15.5%-3.4%4.2%—
EPS Growth-245.0%-245.0%28.6%9.7%—

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +16.9%

Total return

+16.9%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.20 → -0.69

Residual

+16.9%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+0.0%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+16.9%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.