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300616.SZ$15.02-0.53%
Fair $15.02+0.0%

300616.SZ

Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesShenzhen

$15.02

-0.08 (-0.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $15.02Fund rank 25/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 22/D
F-Score: 2/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 17%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $102.4M · quality 39.7/100

Data gap 25/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 19/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

22/100

D

Piotroski

2/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 3 consecutive years ROE is -8.3%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300616.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.4B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

62.4x

↑

ROE

-8.3%

↓

Gross Margin

30.4%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.70

↑
52-Week Range$15
$11$19

TradingView lightweight chart

300616.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $15.02Periodo -65.5%
Fair value: $15.02

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-12.6%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-14.1%

FCF / Net income

2.01x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $3.55B · net income $-248.4M · FCF $-500.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.4%-4.2% pts

Operating margin

-4.1%-5.9% pts

Net margin

-7.0%-7.9% pts

FCF margin

-14.1%-10.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$3.55B$3.55B$3.79B$4.90B$5.31B
Net Income$-248.4M$-248.4M$-215.4M$64.8M$46.3M
EBITDA$65.0M$65.0M$176.2M$511.7M$532.0M
EPS-1.37-1.37-1.140.330.23
Gross Margin30.4%30.4%33.1%35.0%34.6%
Operating Margin-4.1%-4.1%-3.5%3.0%1.8%
Net Margin-7.0%-7.0%-5.7%1.3%0.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.700.700.720.830.56
Current Ratio0.930.93———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-500.0M$-500.0M$105.8M$102.4M$-179.0M
Returns
ROE-8.3%-8.3%-6.3%1.8%1.3%
Valuation
P/E———53.8296.91
EV/EBITDA62.4062.4015.886.869.27
P/B0.910.910.650.971.25
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-6.2%-6.2%-22.7%-7.8%—
EPS Growth-20.2%-20.2%-445.5%43.5%—
Dividend Yield1.3%1.3%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +15.7%

Total return

+15.7%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-1.14 → -1.37

Residual

+14.4%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+1.3%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+14.4%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.