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300816.SZ$90.55-1.03%
Fair $90.55+0.0%

300816.SZ

ActBlue Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsShenzhen

$90.55

-0.94 (-1.03%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $90.55Fund rank 24/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 57/C
F-Score: 6/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 16%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $4.6M · quality 36.0/100

Data gap 24/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 15/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

57/100

C

Piotroski

6/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 300816.SZLocal privado en este navegador · ActBlue Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$7.2B

P/E

73.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

39.8x

↑

ROE

10.2%

↑

Gross Margin

25.4%

↓

Debt/Equity

1.05

↑
52-Week Range$91
$30$103

TradingView lightweight chart

300816.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $91.49Periodo +213.3%
Fair value: $90.55

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+9.8%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

0.9%

FCF / Net income

0.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.08B · net income $95.0M · FCF $10.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.4%+8.3% pts

Operating margin

13.6%+14.3% pts

Net margin

8.8%+10.1% pts

FCF margin

0.9%+7.8% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.08B$1.08B$946.5M$1.05B$816.4M
Net Income$95.0M$95.0M$49.9M$10.7M$-10.5M
EBITDA$194.6M$194.6M$108.1M$71.4M$32.1M
EPS1.211.210.630.13-0.13
Gross Margin25.4%25.4%22.5%17.2%17.1%
Operating Margin13.6%13.6%11.1%5.0%-0.8%
Net Margin8.8%8.8%5.3%1.0%-1.3%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity1.051.050.940.740.73
Current Ratio1.371.37———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$10.1M$10.1M$4.6M$-134.3M$-55.8M
Returns
ROE10.2%10.2%6.0%1.3%-1.3%
Valuation
P/E73.6273.6236.32187.87—
EV/EBITDA39.8139.8120.1334.7676.55
P/B7.627.622.192.472.61
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth14.2%14.2%-9.6%28.2%—
EPS Growth91.5%91.5%371.9%201.4%—
Dividend Yield0.1%0.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

88.1%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$8.03

Spread vs growth

3.3%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

51.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$9.72

Spread vs growth

39.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

29.2%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$15.66

Spread vs growth

62.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +179.5%

Total return

+179.5%

Start / end P/E

51.4x → 75.0x

EPS bridge

0.63 → 1.21

Residual

+42.0%

EPS growth+91.5%
Multiple rerating+45.9%
Dividend+0.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+42.0%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.