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300869.SZ$11.51-1.62%
Fair $11.51+0.0%

300869.SZ

Contec Medical Systems Co.,Ltd

Healthcare / Medical DevicesShenzhen

$11.51

-0.19 (-1.62%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $11.51Fund rank 27/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 19/F
F-Score: 4/9
Declining RevenueLow Profitability

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 34% · confianza 18%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $7.9M · quality 45.3/100

Data gap 27/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 20/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

19/100

F

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 2unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified. Revenue has declined for 2 consecutive years ROE is -1.4%, below the 5% threshold
Thesis & Journal · 300869.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Contec Medical Systems Co.,Ltd
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.6B

P/E

N/A

•

EV/EBITDA

122.7x

↑

ROE

-1.4%

↓

Gross Margin

48.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.56

↑
52-Week Range$12
$11$22

TradingView lightweight chart

300869.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $11.51Periodo -90.0%
Fair value: $11.51

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-13.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-5.8%

FCF / Net income

1.11x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $468.0M · net income $-24.4M · FCF $-27.2M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

48.0%+0.6% pts

Operating margin

-3.0%-20.2% pts

Net margin

-5.2%-32.8% pts

FCF margin

-5.8%-8.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$468.0M$468.0M$479.8M$746.9M$712.1M
Net Income$-24.4M$-24.4M$-77.9M$165.8M$196.2M
EBITDA$38.1M$38.1M$-10.6M$258.8M$259.1M
EPS-0.06-0.06-0.190.400.48
Gross Margin48.0%48.0%49.3%57.6%47.5%
Operating Margin-3.0%-3.0%0.2%24.2%17.2%
Net Margin-5.2%-5.2%-16.2%22.2%27.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.560.560.420.510.82
Current Ratio7.807.80———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-27.2M$-27.2M$7.9M$150.3M$22.2M
Returns
ROE-1.4%-1.4%-4.2%8.1%10.2%
Valuation
P/E———50.0863.21
EV/EBITDA122.67122.67—34.3148.58
P/B2.702.703.244.066.43
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-2.5%-2.5%-35.8%4.9%—
EPS Growth68.4%68.4%-147.5%-16.7%—
Dividend Yield2.2%2.2%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%
Reverse DCF requires positive EPS; loss-making or zero-EPS companies cannot produce a clean EPS hurdle.

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -17.0%

Total return

-17.0%

Start / end P/E

n/dx → n/dx

EPS bridge

-0.19 → -0.06

Residual

-19.2%

EPS growthn/d
Multiple reratingn/d
Dividend+2.2%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-19.2%

EPS/multiple decomposition requires positive EPS at both endpoints; residual absorbs price move not explained by dividends.

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.