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300873.SZ$21.46-3.64%
Fair $21.46+0.0%

300873.SZ

Hichain Logistics Co.,Ltd.

Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsShenzhen

$21.46

-0.81 (-3.64%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $21.46Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 45/C
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $122.0M · quality 62.3/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 51/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

45/100

C

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 300873.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Hichain Logistics Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.9B

P/E

23.6x

↑

EV/EBITDA

7.8x

↓

ROE

8.2%

↑

Gross Margin

25.9%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.26

↓
52-Week Range$21
$19$28

TradingView lightweight chart

300873.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $22.27Periodo -38.5%
Fair value: $21.46

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+1.8%

FCF CAGR

+111.6%

FCF margin

6.4%

FCF / Net income

0.46x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.90B · net income $264.7M · FCF $122.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.9%+0.7% pts

Operating margin

19.2%-2.4% pts

Net margin

13.9%-5.9% pts

FCF margin

6.4%+5.7% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.90B$1.90B$1.65B$1.83B$1.80B
Net Income$264.7M$264.7M$293.4M$281.1M$358.2M
EBITDA$521.8M$521.8M$553.2M$505.1M$546.5M
EPS1.161.161.291.231.68
Gross Margin25.9%25.9%25.1%22.6%25.1%
Operating Margin19.2%19.2%20.2%17.5%21.6%
Net Margin13.9%13.9%17.8%15.4%19.9%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.260.260.180.070.13
Current Ratio1.391.39———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$122.0M$122.0M$218.0M$116.2M$12.9M
Returns
ROE8.2%8.2%9.7%9.9%13.6%
Valuation
P/E23.5823.5812.4418.2216.08
EV/EBITDA7.777.774.437.739.23
P/B1.531.531.211.802.18
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth15.0%15.0%-9.7%1.6%—
EPS Growth-10.1%-10.1%4.9%-26.6%—
Dividend Yield1.8%1.8%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

18.0%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.90

Spread vs growth

-28.1%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

14.7%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$2.30

Spread vs growth

-24.8%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

12.3%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$3.71

Spread vs growth

-22.4%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +4.2%

Total return

+4.2%

Start / end P/E

16.3x → 18.5x

EPS bridge

1.29 → 1.16

Residual

-1.4%

EPS growth-10.1%
Multiple rerating+13.9%
Dividend+1.8%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.