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300898.SZ$22.45+3.89%
Fair $22.45+0.0%

300898.SZ

Panda Dairy Corporation

Consumer Defensive / Packaged FoodsShenzhen

$22.45

+0.84 (+3.89%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $22.45Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 38/D
F-Score: 4/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $148.1M · quality 60.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 42/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

38/100

D

Piotroski

4/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 300898.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Panda Dairy Corporation
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$2.8B

P/E

24.9x

↑

EV/EBITDA

18.3x

↑

ROE

10.6%

↑

Gross Margin

25.6%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.03

↓
52-Week Range$22
$21$33

TradingView lightweight chart

300898.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $22.45Periodo -63.9%
Fair value: $22.45

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

-3.1%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

5.8%

FCF / Net income

0.43x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $811.1M · net income $108.0M · FCF $46.6M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

25.6%+6.3% pts

Operating margin

11.9%+4.9% pts

Net margin

13.3%+7.3% pts

FCF margin

5.8%+7.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$811.1M$811.1M$764.3M$946.9M$891.6M
Net Income$108.0M$108.0M$102.5M$109.0M$53.4M
EBITDA$148.5M$148.5M$147.2M$150.1M$88.0M
EPS0.870.870.830.880.43
Gross Margin25.6%25.6%28.4%23.1%19.3%
Operating Margin11.9%11.9%15.0%12.3%7.0%
Net Margin13.3%13.3%13.4%11.5%6.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.030.030.020.110.11
Current Ratio8.618.61———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$46.6M$46.6M$148.1M$149.7M$-13.9M
Returns
ROE10.6%10.6%10.4%11.6%6.2%
Valuation
P/E24.9424.9430.4526.9153.05
EV/EBITDA18.2918.2920.1118.4731.61
P/B2.732.733.173.113.30
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth6.1%6.1%-19.3%6.2%—
EPS Growth5.4%5.4%-5.7%103.8%—
Dividend Yield2.7%2.7%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

31.7%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.99

Spread vs growth

-26.4%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

22.6%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.41

Spread vs growth

-17.2%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

16.1%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.88

Spread vs growth

-10.7%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -22.7%

Total return

-22.7%

Start / end P/E

36.4x → 25.8x

EPS bridge

0.83 → 0.87

Residual

-1.6%

EPS growth+5.4%
Multiple rerating-29.2%
Dividend+2.7%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-1.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.