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300916.SZ$33.14-4.58%
Fair $33.14+0.0%

300916.SZ

Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co., Ltd.

Industrials / Electrical Equipment & PartsShenzhen

$33.14

-1.59 (-4.58%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $33.14Fund rank 32/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 42/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $101.7M · quality 63.7/100

Data gap 32/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 46/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

42/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 300916.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$4.8B

P/E

65.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

25.4x

↑

ROE

7.4%

↑

Gross Margin

15.9%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.30

↓
52-Week Range$33
$27$50

TradingView lightweight chart

300916.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $33.14Periodo -30.3%
Fair value: $33.14

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+7.5%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.0%

FCF / Net income

-0.31x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $1.60B · net income $102.6M · FCF $-32.0M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.9%-4.1% pts

Operating margin

7.5%-5.4% pts

Net margin

6.4%-7.6% pts

FCF margin

-2.0%-13.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$1.60B$1.60B$1.59B$1.03B$1.29B
Net Income$102.6M$102.6M$154.2M$108.5M$181.1M
EBITDA$160.8M$160.8M$212.6M$159.0M$231.3M
EPS0.710.711.070.751.26
Gross Margin15.9%15.9%17.1%17.1%19.9%
Operating Margin7.5%7.5%9.5%8.8%12.9%
Net Margin6.4%6.4%9.7%10.5%14.0%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.300.300.090.150.03
Current Ratio1.901.90———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-32.0M$-32.0M$178.3M$101.7M$146.4M
Returns
ROE7.4%7.4%11.5%8.8%15.8%
Valuation
P/E64.9864.9825.4432.7325.69
EV/EBITDA25.4025.4015.3318.9517.65
P/B3.463.462.932.894.07
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth0.8%0.8%54.7%-20.3%—
EPS Growth-33.6%-33.6%42.7%-40.5%—
Dividend Yield1.1%1.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

60.6%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.94

Spread vs growth

-94.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

38.0%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$3.56

Spread vs growth

-71.7%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

23.2%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$5.73

Spread vs growth

-56.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total +17.9%

Total return

+17.9%

Start / end P/E

26.5x → 46.7x

EPS bridge

1.07 → 0.71

Residual

-25.6%

EPS growth-33.6%
Multiple rerating+76.0%
Dividend+1.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-25.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.