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300945.SZ$12.98+0.85%
Fair $12.98+0.0%

300945.SZ

MCLON JEWELLERY Co.,Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Luxury GoodsShenzhen

$12.98

+0.11 (+0.85%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $12.98Fund rank 29/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 48/C
F-Score: 5/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 32% · confianza 22%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $43.2M · quality 49.7/100

Data gap 29/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 27/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

48/100

C

Piotroski

5/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 300945.SZLocal privado en este navegador · MCLON JEWELLERY Co.,Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$3.4B

P/E

26.0x

↑

EV/EBITDA

15.8x

↑

ROE

6.8%

↑

Gross Margin

15.0%

↓

Debt/Equity

0.09

↓
52-Week Range$13
$13$30

TradingView lightweight chart

300945.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $12.98Periodo -40.8%
Fair value: $12.98

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+19.4%

FCF CAGR

—

FCF margin

-2.2%

FCF / Net income

-0.52x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.74B · net income $114.6M · FCF $-59.5M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

15.0%-1.6% pts

Operating margin

5.5%+1.4% pts

Net margin

4.2%+0.8% pts

FCF margin

-2.2%-3.9% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.74B$2.74B$2.36B$1.92B$1.61B
Net Income$114.6M$114.6M$96.1M$80.1M$54.3M
EBITDA$181.1M$181.1M$140.5M$115.5M$81.8M
EPS0.440.440.370.350.27
Gross Margin15.0%15.0%13.4%14.6%16.6%
Operating Margin5.5%5.5%4.6%5.0%4.2%
Net Margin4.2%4.2%4.1%4.2%3.4%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.090.090.070.040.02
Current Ratio6.796.79———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$-59.5M$-59.5M$102.1M$43.2M$27.6M
Returns
ROE6.8%6.8%6.0%5.2%6.7%
Valuation
P/E25.9625.9632.6238.7752.44
EV/EBITDA15.8015.8018.0419.2832.38
P/B2.012.011.942.003.52
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth16.2%16.2%22.6%19.4%—
EPS Growth18.9%18.9%5.7%29.6%—
Dividend Yield1.5%1.5%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

37.8%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.15

Spread vs growth

-18.9%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

25.9%

muy exigente

EPS terminal req.

$1.39

Spread vs growth

-7.0%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

17.7%

exigente

EPS terminal req.

$2.24

Spread vs growth

1.2%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -21.2%

Total return

-21.2%

Start / end P/E

45.4x → 29.5x

EPS bridge

0.37 → 0.44

Residual

-6.6%

EPS growth+18.9%
Multiple rerating-35.0%
Dividend+1.5%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term-6.6%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.