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301004.SZ$39.06+1.53%
Fair $39.06+0.0%

301004.SZ

Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co., Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersShenzhen

$39.06

+0.59 (+1.53%)

Fairly Valued+0.0%Fair Value $39.06Fund rank 33/100 · Data gapFallback financials|
SA 56/C
F-Score: 3/9

FCF base 3Y

n/d

n/d CAGR · yield n/d

FCF base 5Y

n/d

n/d base · n/d expected

Precio de entrada

n/d

MOS 25% · confianza 25%

FCF escenarios

weak_data · normalized FCF $299.1M · quality 64.7/100

Data gap 33/100
Bear 5Yn/dn/d
Base 5Yn/dn/d
Bull 5Yn/dn/d
Return 0/100Downside 20/100Model quality 54/100Data QA 20/100

Ranking barato/determinista: CAGR esperado 5Y + downside bear + calidad del modelo + balance + capital allocation + data gate. No entra en buy-candidate si la data es débil o el CAGR 5Y no compensa.

Quality + valuation scorecard

SA Score

56/100

C

Piotroski

3/9

balance/quality

Valuation

50/100

+0.0% upside

5Y CAGR

+0.0%

50/100

Data QA

16/100

SEC 0%

Latest source: unknownPeriods: 4Warnings: 0unknown: 4
No SEC-backed annual rows; valuation uses fallback financial data. Insufficient audited annual history (<3 SEC-backed years); composite fair value and forward targets are disabled until manually verified.
Thesis & Journal · 301004.SZLocal privado en este navegador · Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co., Ltd.
Plantilla tipo buy-side: tesis, bull/base/bear, catalizadores, riesgos, kill criteria y fecha de revisión. Esto no gasta GPT-5.5; luego lo usamos como contexto del memo.

Sin guardar todavía.

Market Cap

$5.7B

P/E

16.3x

↓

EV/EBITDA

9.2x

↓

ROE

24.2%

↑

Gross Margin

30.2%

↑

Debt/Equity

0.24

↓
52-Week Range$39
$38$77

TradingView lightweight chart

301004.SZ price, volumen y niveles de valoración

Último $39.06Periodo +71.5%
Fair value: $39.06

Price & Ratios

Absolute Values (Left Axis)

Ratios / Percentages (Right Axis)

Financial statement dashboard

Crecimiento, márgenes y provenance

2022–2025 · 3 años de histórico normalizado

Revenue CAGR

+23.2%

FCF CAGR

+58.4%

FCF margin

23.2%

FCF / Net income

1.25x

Latest source

Provider fallback

Margin decomposition

Último año: revenue $2.35B · net income $437.2M · FCF $547.1M

2022-FY → 2025-FY

Gross margin

30.2%-4.0% pts

Operating margin

20.7%-4.4% pts

Net margin

18.6%-3.0% pts

FCF margin

23.2%+12.3% pts
MetricTTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
Income Statement
Revenue$2.35B$2.35B$2.84B$1.78B$1.26B
Net Income$437.2M$437.2M$732.9M$472.0M$271.9M
EBITDA$606.6M$606.6M$916.9M$573.4M$325.0M
EPS3.023.025.083.311.94
Gross Margin30.2%30.2%37.7%40.7%34.3%
Operating Margin20.7%20.7%29.6%31.0%25.1%
Net Margin18.6%18.6%25.8%26.6%21.6%
Balance Sheet
Debt/Equity0.240.240.190.020.00
Current Ratio4.114.11———
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow$547.1M$547.1M$35.5M$299.1M$137.7M
Returns
ROE24.2%24.2%37.3%36.1%31.3%
Valuation
P/E16.3416.3415.0410.0612.43
EV/EBITDA9.199.1911.727.299.04
P/B3.133.135.613.643.89
Growth & Yield
Revenue Growth-17.0%-17.0%59.8%41.0%—
EPS Growth-40.6%-40.6%53.3%70.6%—
Dividend Yield8.1%8.1%———

Revenue, Net Income & Free Cash Flow ($B)

Margins (%)

Returns (%)

Leverage & Liquidity

Reverse DCF · market-implied EPS growthterminal P/E 15.0x · COE 10.0%

3Y implied EPS CAGR

4.7%

fácil

EPS terminal req.

$3.47

Spread vs growth

-45.2%

5Y implied EPS CAGR

6.8%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$4.19

Spread vs growth

-47.3%

10Y implied EPS CAGR

8.4%

razonable

EPS terminal req.

$6.75

Spread vs growth

-48.9%

Qué te dice: cuánto EPS CAGR está descontando el precio si sales al múltiplo terminal indicado. Si el growth observado queda por debajo, el mercado está pidiendo una ejecución muy fina.

Return attribution · 1Y approxreconcilia total -39.0%

Total return

-39.0%

Start / end P/E

14.5x → 12.9x

EPS bridge

5.08 → 3.02

Residual

+4.4%

EPS growth-40.6%
Multiple rerating-10.9%
Dividend+8.1%
Residual / FX / buybacks / cross-term+4.4%

Simple additive decomposition: total return = EPS growth contribution + P/E multiple contribution + dividend contribution + explicit residual. The residual captures cross-terms, buybacks/share-count effects, FX, special dividends, data noise and methodology mismatch so the bridge always reconciles.